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After Donald Trump accused Volodymyr Zelensky of ‘gambling with WW3’, experts share how likely it is that the war on Ukraine will escalate to global conflict, and what that will look like
Europe’s last hope for safety and security lies with Keir Starmer, a world affairs expert tells the Mirror.
The Prime Minister said we are “at a crossroads in history” after gathering 18 European leaders in London yesterday amid fears Donald Trump could pursue a dangerous deal with Russian tyrant Vladimir Putin. Starmer has confirmed the UK and France will now lead a “coalition of the willing” to help end the war in Ukraine.
It came just two days after Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump had a heated exchange in front of TV cameras in the Oval Office. During the fiery row, the US president accused his Ukrainian counterpart of not being thankful enough for years of US military and financial support, and said he was “gambling with World War Three”.
The clash, which ended with Zelensky leaving the White House early, shook Ukraine’s agenda and led to Starmer organising a summit. At the press conference on Sunday, the PM said that “Europe must do the heavy lifting”, but made it clear that US support is needed to deter Russia from invading again, and ultimately prevent WW3.
So how likely is another global war?
Professor Anthony Glees, a security and intelligence expert at the University of Buckingham, told the Mirror that – despite outward appearances – Trump “really does want peace and would have it at almost any price”.
He said: “Trump, in his heart of hearts, realises that if the Ukraine war were to become a more general war, the USA would have to get involved and that would indeed lead to WW3.”
Prof Glees believes Trump, JD Vance and Putin “had thought Europe would fall apart if they put pressure on us”, and did not foresee the UK bringing Europe together. He said Starmer is “right to pull out all the stops to try to buy time”, such as announcing an additional £1.6billion of UK export finance to buy more than 5,000 air defence missiles, and a £2.2bn loan to provide more military aid to Ukraine.
Prof Glees believes that if a peace deal with the US cannot be made, the war in Ukraine will continue until Zelensky is defeated and then Russia will start on the Baltic Republics. “We will then have subversion in the UK, cyber attacks and conventional military incursions, possibly even warning jabs in Britain and France,” he said. “This is the great threat posed by a win for Putin in Ukraine, and why Ukraine’s danger is our danger.”
If Putin cannot win a conventional war, the prof predicts he will use nuclear power, leaving Europe to respond with nukes or be defeated. He added: “So all power to Starmer’s elbow; with America out of it, his plan is our best, last hope for security in Europe.”
On the other hand, Paul Rogers, Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University, believes it is more likely the war in Ukraine will end with a compromise, with Zelensky offering Putin land. He told the Mirror: “I think Putin will probably take a settlement, providing he gets enough out of it. He won’t get full control of those four districts of eastern Ukraine, but he can get a lot. Now is the most favourable time for him with Trump in his first flush as president for the second time.”
He went on: “I don’t think either side can be beaten in the old sense, it has to end in compromise. There won’t be winners in this. The only winners are the armed companies. We have to be very careful to risk any move into war, because people will not win overall.”
Prof Rogers believes we should not be “hugely worried” about WW3 being imminent, but said that any sort of global conflict involving nuclear power is “always dangerous”. “It is the unexpected. We should always be worried about the risk of nuclear confrontation. Over the last 80 years, we’ve been luckier than we deserve,” he said. “It is a difficult time, but I do not see an immediate prospect of an escalation unless something untoward happens.”
Meanwhile, Professor Rory Cormac of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, said: “This was a terrible weekend for the US and US leadership. It is bewilderingly surreal – and, frankly, sad – to hear the US government not only parroting Russian propaganda lines so brazenly but, more importantly, also acting in Russian interests. I don’t think WW3 is any closer, but if it did happen, the weekend only raises questions over which side the US would be on.”