Military experts have warned the Russian president’s war-machine could be fully rebuilt to strength and made ready to attack NATO neighbours by 2027 if a peace deal is struck in Ukraine
Russia could build its military up and threaten NATO within two years if a Ukraine ceasefire deal is struck and American quits the alliance, a shock think-tank report has warned. Despite losing close to a million frontline troops to death and injury, Kremlin chiefs could pose a danger to NATO by the year 2027, if war in Ukraine stops later this year, it says.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies warns it will cost Europe £752bn to fill the gap left by the United States military if it leaves Europe and concentrates on China. It warns Europe would quickly have to find 128,000 more troops to replace the Americans an bolster continent-wide security against the threat of attack from Russia.
The IISS says: “…Russia could be in a position to pose a significant military challenge to NATO allies, particularly the Baltic states, as early as 2027. This comes despite Russia losing a reported 10,000 tanks in Ukraine, plus hundreds of warplanes and helicopters, many warships and even a submarine.
“By then, Russia’s ground forces could mirror its February 2022 active equipment holdings through a combination of refurbishment and the production of new systems. Moreover, its air and maritime forces have been largely unaffected by the war.
“Consequently, were US forces to disengage from the European theatre from mid-2025, Europe’s window of vulnerability would open quickly. Not only would European allies need to replace major US military platforms and manpower – the latter estimated at 128,000 troops – but also address shortfalls in space and all- domain intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets.”
And on top of the fighting troops that would need to be found by Europe, senior officers would have to be allocated within NATO to replace the US generals. The report adds: “They would also need to replace the significant US contribution to NATO’s command and control arrangements and fill many senior military positions in NATO organisations currently occupied by US personnel.”
The US withdrawal also means European countries would have to buy 400 fighter jets and 20 destroyers to defend against an attack from Russia. Researchers said: “European allies can no longer assume that the US will provide the necessary military support to defend the continent against Russian aggression.”
US President Donald Trump said before next month’s NATO summit in the Hague that Europe can no longer rely on his country to defend Europe if they do not spend money on defence. He is insisting that European NATO members must raise their defence spending by five per cent of gross domestic product.
The UK says it will increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, aiming for this level by 2030, and potentially reaching 3% in the next Parliament. It had previously been believed it could take Russia a decade to rebuild its military capability.
The report’s authors underline the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin will have spent 7.5 per cent of GDP on defence by the end of this year. They warned his Russia’s ability to rebuild cannot be “underestimated.”
It is believed most under threat are Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, all formerly part of the Soviet Union. An attack on one of these countries would trigger NATO Article Five which means an attack on them is an attack on the rest of the membership who must defend it.
The report says European countries need to increase investment to “Cold War levels”, when defence spending averaged more than 3 per cent of GDP, to compensate for the US loss. Russia is also believed to be bolstering its forces within 100 miles of its border with Finland, which joined NATO in 2023, the year following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.