The much publicized military shake up is being hailed by those behind it as the biggest change to UK defence in 150 years but it waits to be seen what will actually be delivered
This has been called the biggest change to UK defence in around 150 years – and on the face of it that could well be the case. That is if any of the much-vaunted changes actually come about and within the time it is being suggested they need to happen.
Take the army numbers for instance. Many hoped these would be boosted from less than 73,000 as they currently stand. This is by no means intentional even though numbers were brutally cut over years of Tory rule. It is a result of poor recruitment and retention. There is only the possibility of a “small uplift.”
It says: “Overall we envisage an increase in the total of Regular personnel when finding allows. This includes a small uplift in Army Regulars as a priority.”
But there is mention of “increasing the number of Active Reserves by 20% – when funding allows – most likely in the 2030s…” There is no promise to increase troop numbers and it merely means they might be increased if we can afford it if and when the need arises.
The SDR – the most important one in decades – comes at a time of soaring hostility with Russia, whilst China, Iran and North Korea are also threats of varying degrees. And it promises a great deal whilst the big question is whether it will deliver too.
One of the biggest problems for the UK in time of war would be air defences, how to shoot down incoming missiles. Currently, if it were large and fast incoming missiles this might be undertaken by one the UK’s Type 45 destroyers, as a sea to air defence or F35B or Typhoon fighter jets as in air-to-air.
Or the Army maye use Sky Sabre, a lorry mounted air defence system which replaced Rapier. That system fires anti-air missiles.
In his introduction defence secretary John Healey clearly says: “We will protect the UK homeland with up to £1bn new funding invested in homeland air and missile defence and creating a new CyberEM Command to defend Britain from daily attacks in the grey zone.”
But it turns out this is not a shiny new air defence system such as Israel had , like the Iron Dome or David’s Sling. It is merely a continuation of the Type 45 – fighter jet defences, just with better communication and integration.
Like many reviews, the lack of granularity could make you suspect there’s not much in it. The emphasis on AI, the risk of space wars, combating the threat from cyber assaults is all there and alarming and reassuring at the same time.
It is reassuring the weapons production is being stepped up with six new missiles factories being created, boosting jobs and UK defences. But we don’t know what they are, if they are new or what will fire them.
The very fact this review happened is good and shows the government is getting things done on defence.
But there will be huge trade-offs, perhaps with manning moving aside for new high-tech weaponry. Cost is going to be a huge issue and it remains to be seen if all of this can be afforded.