Will Israel’s attack on Iran and the ensuing revenge strikes by Tehran move us towards World War Three and will America get involved – escalating the problem.
As the world awaits a US decision on whether to join Israel’s strikes on Iran and with Supreme Leader dodging the onslaught, many are left wondering if it will it lead to a much bigger conflict. Trump had demanded Iran’s “immediate surrender” as he hinted there could be plans to assassinate the country’s national and spiritual patriarch.
But why is America so involved in Israel’s conflicts? Here, the Mirror answers five key questions on the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, its origins and causes and what any Middle East crisis could mean for the wider world. Here’s what you need to know:
Q: Why has this missile exchange between Israel and Iran erupted?
A: There has been tension between the two since the 1979 Iran Revolution, the current government does not recognise Israel as a State and has called for its destruction.
It financed and supplied weapons and training to Gazan Hamas, Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis, using them as proxies against Israel but in the meantime it is said by Israel to be trying to acquire nuclear weapons.
This became urgent as Israeli PM Netanyahu claimed this was imminent, as in possibly within months. He saw this as an opportunity to hit Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with Hezbollah and Hamas now crippled whilst the Houthis are also badly hit by Israeli strikes. Conveniently this exchange has diverted attention from Israel’s war in Gaza.
Q: What does the rest of the Middle East think of this?
A: Publicly it can be critical of Israel but privately Iran has very few friends in the Middle East, not least because it is a Shia theocracy which creates a natural schism between it and the largely Sunni Middle East but also because of its aggression and desire to expand its power in the region.
Syria was until the recent topping of the Bashar al-Assad regime, its main ally but that has gone now. Saudi Arabia has been in a near-state of war with Iran for years. Its main allies are the authoritarian trio Russia, China and North Korea and it has the Houthis in Yemen.
Q: Why would the US back Israel in a war with Iran?
A: America has been traditionally Israel’s biggest supporter, militarily, politically and diplomatically, since 1948, supporting a Jewish homeland post WW II and the Holocaust. It also offers the US a huge foothold in the Middle East and eases America’s long-term bid to ease or manipulate tensions in the regions.
US-Israel links were particularly useful to Washington during the Cold War. Israel’s supremacy and ruthlessness in the intelligence world have also been immensely useful to the US.
Q: Are we witnessing the start of World War Three?
A: Hopefully not but some argue WWIII has already started with the kind of hybrid conflict that the Iran, North Korea, China quartet are hatching daily against the west, with cyber warfare and espionage becoming increasingly aggressive.
This is below the threshold for all-out war but Iran has tried to kill people in the UK before, particularly dissident diaspora and Russia has actually a few times in the UK.
Missile firing, open conflict between two countries with allies such as Iran and Israel can lead to war as other parties are sucked into their bloodshed – as we are witnessing with the US arming up the Middle East.
And one wrong miscalculation or called bluff can lead to a major explosion from which it may be difficult to de-escalate.
Q: What will happen next?
A: It is almost impossible to guess but it is likely the US will join the war on Iran’s nuclear programme, causing Russia, China and North Korea to ask themselves some profound questions about how much support to offer Tehran.
Israel’s calculation is that a nuclear armed Tehran would threaten its very existence so the risk of a wider war is worth it.
America may believe, perhaps rightly, that in particular China will be sensible and back off as this is not the right time to go to war with the US, Russia is so depleted it may no longer be a threat and North Korea is such a basket case that it is unpredictable though bellicose.
A period of brinkmanship may ensue with state muscle flexing and then a de-escalation. But none of this is guaranteed. And whilst World War is almost unimaginable, it is also a probability one day.