If the Israel-Iran ceasefire holds, it catapults the decades-old conflict into the shadows, heralding an era of covert operations, assassination attempts and espionage plots by both bitter enemies
Overt war between Israel and Iran may be over for now, with a volatile Middle Eastern version of a ceasefire being struck via back-channelling.
Both sides have been accused of breaking the ceasefire within hours – first Iran launching a barrage and Israel replying with blasts in northern Tehran. This is a frequent occurrence in ceasefires, especially in the Middle East as both sides try to have the last word in the conflict.
Within hours Tehran is said to have broken the peace agreement, but America has now taken control of this deadly conflict and Israel may feel restrained. It is possible immense pressure has been applied to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to respect the ceasefire – but whether that sticks remains to be seen. And Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will feel extremely uncomfortable, knowing he is likely carrying a huge target on his back to be hit at a time of Israel’s choosing.
Likewise all of the new leaders of Tehran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps whose activities will be watched closely. Despite all of this simplistic Trump talk of peace, the decades-old conflict has now been thrown into the shadows and today’s news means a dirty and ruthless war behind-the-scenes has restarted at pace.
It is clear the US used diplomatic back-channels to Iran to give Tehran’s missile teams the go-ahead to save face with impotent missile launches against US bases in Qatar and Iraq. US President Donald Trump claimed he was grateful to Tehran for giving some kind of warning about its targeting of the bases, perhaps leading to no deaths.
But this was probably some kind of deal struck behind the scenes by the CIA intelligence agency and securing an end to the war, whilst trying not to make the Tehran regime weak by giving it an off-ramp. Nevertheless Israel’s recent strikes on Tehran did hit a prison filled with dissidents, perhaps in the hope of triggering an uprising in the Islamic Republic.
This does indicate a tension between Israel’s deadly view towards eradicating Iran’s military and the US President’s desire to be known as the ‘peace-deal president.’ The overt war may be over for now but it could spark up again at any moment and probably at a time of Israel’s choosing.
If it identifies a new and crucial target it will strike, in the knowledge that Iran’s air defences have been dismantled, leaving it very vulnerable. Deadly missile exchanges may be over for now but inevitably this heralds a shadowy ‘grey-zone’ era of below threshold espionage and deadly covert operations.
Israel’s foreign spy agency Mossad, its domestic Shin Bet security organisation and military intelligence will be pushed into overdrive to identify new and not-yet-killed targets of Iranian commanders, regime leaders, missile sites and any sign of a remaining nuclear programme. Israeli intelligence likes to enjoy as many targets on file as possible so it can ratchet up pressure gradually towards overt war, repeatedly eliminating people and military sites and applying immense force on its enemies.
That policy has two key aims – degrading the ability of its enemy to fight effectively as they approach war and psychologically breaking down the ability and willingness to fight. We witnessed the devastating effect of this in the prolonged demolishing of Hezbollah’s command structure during the recent war there.
That culminated in the deaths and grotesque injuries imposed on hundreds of Hezbollah kingpins in the now notorious ‘mobile phone bombs’ plot. Crucially now Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps covert teams may equally get busy plotting covert attacks against Israel and its western allies, including Britain.
Officially the war is over for now but now the conflict has been thrown into the shadows as a new and long-term era of plotting and striking starts. Israel, according to sources, is dangerously short of missiles but it has not finished the job of totally dismantling the IRGC and its missile teams whilst it cannot be absolutely sure the nuclear programme has collapsed.
Iran will have to rebuild its weapons supplies at pace and will want to try to re-grow its influence footprint across the Middle East which has been drastically neutered by the war sparked by the Hamas attack on southern Israel in 2023. This war may nominally be over – but the truth is it has just gone quiet for now and may explode at any moment.
Meanwhile it is now being fought at pace in the shadows. We can expect occasional missile exchanges but these will mask the real war being fought covertly between these two bitter enemies. And key to all of this is if Israel receives the slightest hint of an uprising building up in Iran.
And that may or may not include the assasination of Khamenei by Israel or its incredibly able network of highly-trained and motivated agents within the country. All of this said, Iran has lost a great deal in this war, possibly its nuclear programme, definitely its ability for now to defend itself and above all, it has lost face in the Middle East. It was a devastating and unmatched victory for Israeli intelligence and military planning, the culmination of decades of war-plotting.