Keir Starmer confirmed today the Government is locked in talks with rebellious backbenchers over welfare reforms. Here The Mirror looks at the PM’s immediate options
Keir Starmer confirmed today the Government is locked in talks with rebellious backbenchers over welfare reforms.
In a Commons update on Thursday, the PM also addressed the growing rebellion and hinted at possible concessions in the coming days. He said he and his team “want to get this right”.
The PM said benefits claimants “are failed every single day” by a “broken system”. Mr Starmer told MPs: “On social security, I recognise there is a consensus across the House on the urgent need for reform of our welfare system, because the British people deserve protection and dignity when they are unable to work and supported to work when they can.
“At the moment, they are failed every single day by the broken system created by the Conservatives, which achieves neither.I know colleagues across the House are eager to start fixing that, and so am I, and that all colleagues want to get this right, and so do I. We want to see reform implemented with Labour values of fairness. That conversation will continue in the coming days, so we can begin making change together on Tuesday.”
But with 126 Labour MPs signing an amendment that could torpedo the plan, the Government could face an embarrassing defeat if it goes ahead. Here The Mirror looks at the PM’s immediate options.
Press ahead with vote
Keir Starmer could decide to press ahead with the vote even if concessions aren’t reached. This would be perhaps the nuclear option.
With over 120 Labour MPs now opposed to the plans, rebels have the numbers to wipe-out the government’s majority and deliver a humiliating defeat.
And it is likely there are many more backbenchers – possibly frontbenchers – who are opposed to the plans but have not said so publicly yet.
A defeat on this scale – overturning the government’s huge majority – would leave the government’s welfare plans in tatters. It would also leave the Chancellor Rachel Reeves with a £5billion black hole in her plans.
Concessions to rebels
The most likely scenario is that Keir Starmer will thrash out concessions with rebels over the coming hours and days in an attempt to salvage the reforms.
Under existing plans the eligibility for Personal Independence Payment (PIP) will be restricted. This is where most of the £5billion savings are being made.
The benefit is paid to people both in and out of work and helps with daily tasks due to a long-term physical or mental health condition.
Eligibility is calculated using a points-based system, based on how difficult someone finds it to perform tasks like washing themselves and getting dressed.
But from the end of 2026 people would need to score a minimum of four points in at least one daily activity to qualify under the plans.
Needing help to get in or out of the shower, or supervision to use the toilet are measures that don’t meet this threshold. There have been suggestions this could be tweaked so people would need to score three points instead to make the new system slightly more generous.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests this could increase eligibility by 190,000 – at a cost of £0.8 billion.
But even in this scenario it is extremely unlikely to satisfy all the rebels. There is a bloc of rebels opposed to the principle of taking away disability and sickness benefits full stop and will still vote against the proposals.
Delay the vote – or pull the reforms
If no concessions are reached, Mr Starmer may feel he has no other option but to delay the vote on Tuesday.
This would allow time to speak to rebels and reach a compromise over the summer months, before a vote after the summer recess. It would be a screeching U-turn and politically messy.
Over the last 24 hours both Mr Starmer and the Deputy PM Angela Rayner have insisted the vote will go ahead – a line repeated by No10 and a series of ministers.
But it would mean avoiding a Commons defeat on one of the government’s flagship policies almost a year to the date Labour won a historic victory at the general election.
And if the rebels are not won over, pulling the reforms completely could also be on the cards.
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