NASA says the 10-storey YR4 asteroid could hit the Moon in 2032, which could see global communications come to a complete standstill as debris makes its way into the atmosphere and destroys satellites
A huge asteroid that was thought to be heading towards earth is actually on course for the moon – which could wreak digital havoc across the planet.
The city killer YR4 asteroid – which is the size of a 10-storey building – was first spotted at the end of 2024 and was said to have a three per cent chance of hitting the Earth.
NASA’s Centre for Near Earth Object Studies has now adjusted its prediction, giving the asteroid a 4.3 per cent chance of smashing into the moon as early as 2032. What makes it more terrifying is that the probability has been steadily increasing, after NASA gave it a 3.8 per cent probability in April and 1.7 per cent in February.
According to experts, if the rock did make contact with the moon, it would have similar fallout to an atomic bomb. Scientists believe it would spark a meteor shower that could threaten our satellite systems.
Australian National University astrologist and cosmologist, Brad Tucker, said just because the asteroid is no longer heading for Earth, it could still cause irreparable damage to the planet.
“So, when the odds shifted away from the earth they shifted towards the moon, it’s still only four per cent – it’s not even four per cent [it’s] just about that – it’s almost 1 in 25. That’s enough that you want to pay attention to,” Mr Tucker said.
It’s unlikely that any fragments would plummeted to Earth, there is a possibility that some debris could enter our atmosphere – putting a number of vital satellites at risk of destruction.
“We’re not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there’s actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,” Mr Tucker tells Sky Australia.
“There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris. We shouldn’t just think about the earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the Moon as well.”
Mr Tucker explained that new studies show how a strike with the moon could see huge amounts of debris being pulled into the atmosphere. Once there, it would make it 1,000 times more likely for a satellite to be hit.
“So it’s one of those downward scenarios where we are thinking because of the way earth is now set up it actually may still have an impact,” he said.
In the event of a satellite strike, the sudden loss could wreak havoc on the ground. Global connectivity would be completely lost, as would navigation systems, financial markets and military operations.
YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, according to solar system dynamics expert Dr Paul Wiegert. Its collosal size means it would easily take out a space station or satellite, he said.