Keir Starmer offered major concessions on welfare reforms to avoid a Commons defeat – but the Government’s own analysis suggests 150,000 people could still be pushed into poverty
The Government is battling to quell a Labour revolt over disability benefit cuts that risk pushing 150,000 people into poverty.
Keir Starmer offered massive concessions on controversial welfare reforms last week to avoid a defeat in the Commons on Tuesday. But Labour MPs lined up to express fury over the plans, which the Government’s own analysis admitted could push tens of thousands of people into hardship.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall insisted Labour was “doing the fair thing and the right thing” to help people back into work. She said: “Our plans are rooted in fairness for those who need support and for taxpayers. They are about ensuring the welfare state survives.”
While some of the 126 Labour rebels are expected to vote with the Government, around 50 MPs could still oppose the bill in the biggest revolt of Mr Starmer’s premiership. Rebel Labour MP Debbie Abrahams told The Mirror: “The Government’s concessions to protect existing PIP claimants are significant, and many of us feel that we’re nearly there.
READ MORE: DWP welfare cuts to still push 150,000 into poverty – despite major U-turn
“However there are still real concerns about the PIP review, its timing and how the commitment for this to be co-produced with disabled people’s organisations is genuine when the outcome of this – that 4 points still has to be achieved for each daily living activity – has been predetermined.
Ms Abrahams, who chairs the Commons Work and Pensions Committee, accused the Government of going back on its word as MPs thought cuts for future Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claimants would be put on hold until a review has taken place.
She added: “We did propose to delay this to November 2026 to better align and not undermine the great work on increasing NHS capacity, employment opportunities for disabled people and employment support.”
The row comes after an extraordinary climbdown from the Prime Minister last week. The proposals will now mean existing claimants are protected from losing PIP, in a reprieve for an estimated 370,000 people who were due to lose more than £4,000 a year.
Instead, tighter eligibility rules for the key disability benefit will only apply to future claimants from November 2026. Existing claimants of the Universal Credit top up will continue to receive £97 per week, while new claimants from April 2026 will see it fall to £50 a week.
Details were also set out of a review of PIP assessments led by Minister Sir Stephen Timms, done in partnership with disability groups. But a string of Labour MPs sounded the alarm over plans to publish the findings by next autumn – when the changes are meant to come into effect.
Backbencher Derek Twigg asked: “Given the wider review, why are we pushing ahead at this stage?”
Ms Kendall confirmed the climbdown will halve the £5billion savings the Government had expected to claw back from the benefits bill by 2030. It means Chancellor Rachel Reeves will have to scramble to make up the shortfall in the Budget in the autumn.
Earlier, modelling published by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) said an additional 150,000 people will be pushed into relative poverty after housing costs by 2029-30. Ms Kendall insisted that changes to PIP and Universal Credit would “ensure no existing claimants are put into poverty”.
A Downing Street spokesman said the modelling “doesn’t reflect the full picture” and was “subject to uncertainty” as it does not take into account extra funding to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work. An additional £300million will be put towards this, with spending rising to £1billion by 2029/30.
A previous analysis in March – before the U-turn – said the welfare reforms would result in an extra 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, falling into poverty No10 is hoping the concessions will convince enough Labour MPs to back the plans in a crunch vote on Tuesday.
But disability groups have warned the changes risk creating a “two-tier” benefits system. Campaigners from 86 charities including Mind, Scope, Trussell and the Child Poverty Action Group urged MPs to vote against the bill.
Labour’s Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, warned: “I still have serious concerns about these plans. I’ve met too many Londoners who do work, but through no fault of their own need support from the state, and they’re really worried they’ll lose that.”
Charlotte Gill, of the MS Society, said: “We’re appalled that the government are choosing to rush through this reckless and harmful bill. It’s outrageous that MPs are being asked to vote for dramatic welfare changes, without having time to properly scrutinise their impact.
“By the government’s own admission these catastrophic cuts will still push at least 150,000 more people into poverty. MS is a debilitating, exhausting and unpredictable condition which gets worse over time. PIP is a lifeline not a luxury for many people with MS.”
A No10 spokesman said: “The broken welfare system we inherited is failing people every single day. It traps millions, it tells them the only way to get help is to declare they’ll never work again and then abandons them. No help, no opportunity, no dignity and we can’t accept that. For too long, meaningful reform to a failing system has been ducked.”
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said her party would vote against the Government’s proposals, saying they were “not serious welfare reform”.
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