Polling expert Sir John Curtice told The Mirror that Keir Starmer’s Labour won’t be able to ‘relax’ even if Jeremy Corbyn’s and Zarah Sultana’s the new party fails
Keir Starmer’s Labour won’t be able to “relax” even if Jeremy Corbyn’s and Zarah Sultana’s new political project fails, a top pollster warns today.
Prof Sir John Curtice told The Mirror before the launch of the new socialist party the Labour government could “no longer assume there are no effective enemies to its left.” He said the Green Party, which is currently electing a new leader, had already done damage to the party’s electoral standing – particularly among younger voters.
Last month Mr Corbyn, who led the Labour Party between 2015 and 2020, and ex-Labour MP Zarah Sultana released a joint statement saying “real change is coming”. They declared it was time for a “new kind of political party” as they set out plans to launch a democratic movement to “take on the rich and powerful”. It comes after The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire wrote: ‘Labour must find engaging story for the UK – or face election wipeout’.
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A Labour source dismissed the launch at the time, saying: “The electorate has twice given its verdict on a Jeremy Corbyn led party.” But by Friday over 650,000 people had signed up for updates and one Labour councillor in Coventry resigned her membership of the party to sit as an independent and support the new party.
Councillor Grace Lewis said: “When Zarah Sultana and Jeremy Corbyn announced its inception, I felt a sense of genuine political hope for the first time in a long time.”
One left-wing Labour MP told The Mirror that Mr Starmer’s “failure to change direction fast will leave the new party ample space to pick up votes”. They blamed the rise of the new party on the PM’s “attack” on the left in recent years, controversial welfare cuts, the winter fuel payments row, and the response of the government to the slaughter in Gaza.
Over the summer Mr Corbyn and Ms Sultana are expected to hold meetings and rallies across the country to thrash out ideas ahead of a “founding conference” – likely to be in November. The project is still in its early phases and one of the items on the agenda is a name for the new left-wing party. It currently has the holding name ‘Your Party’.
Ms Sultana, who lost the Labour whip in 2024 after rebelling against the government over the two-child benefit limit, has proposed “The Left” or “The Left Party”. Mr Corbyn joked it could end up being “Boaty McParty” or: “The interim committee for the development of a meaningful understanding of social change and the need for justice and inequality that’s peaceful and sustainable.”
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He told the journalist Owen Jones this week: “The idea that you join a party without a name to choose a name is not a bad thing. It’s democracy in action.”
A source close to the new party told The Mirror: “The founding process will start with local engagement with communities up and down the country. This will involve more than just rallies – this will be an opportunity to deliberate on the direction and values of this new party.
“This founding process will lead to an all-member inaugural conference, where members will decide what the party stands for and how it can organise to win.”
They added: “To kickstart this founding process, Jeremy and Zarah will be working with their colleagues in the Independent Alliance alongside people from trade unions, social movements and campaigns up and down the country, united by the same goal: to launch a democratic party that belongs to its members.”
There are also major decisions over whether the new party will stand a candidate in every seat at the next general election – expected in 2029. And the first electoral test is likely to come in the Spring as voters head to the polls in the local elections in England, which includes all London councils. On the same day votes will be cast for the next Scottish and Welsh Parliaments.
Sir John Curtice told The Mirror: “This is at the moment a hypothetical party and the key essential question is can they find the money, can they find the resource, can they set up a party organisation everywhere?”
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“While we know that Corbyn is a campaigner with a particularly strong personal following among some of the electorate, not exactly known for his organisational skill. But there is obviously a substantial body of left-wing activists who have been involved with things on the left who are behind all of this.”
Some have also called for the new project to form electoral alliances with the Green Party, which is currently electing a new leader.
The Green’s more than 60,000 members face a choice between MPs Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns, and an insurgent campaign led by London Assembly member Zack Polanski. Mr Polanski has suggested he would “open to working with anyone who’s up for challenging the far-right threat of Reform and this unpopular Labour government”.
Referring to the Greens, Sir John added: “We are already in a world where Labour can no longer assume there are no effective enemies to its left. Greens are already doing that. The vote for the Greens… is amongst people on the left, it’s amongst people who are socially liberal in particular, and the Greens did damage to Labour amongst younger voters at the last election.”
But Sir John said it was the Green Party who had the “most to worry” from the parties in Westminster over the launch of a new left-wing party. He highlighted initial polls giving a Corbyn-led party as an option. One by More in Commons pollsters showed support for Labour slipping by 3% and the Greens falling by 4% if the new left-wing project is included. There was no change for both the Tories and Reform UK.
Sir John went on: “Even if this [new] project fails, if the Greens manage to avoid falling out with each other, if the Greens remain a viable force, they are pretty much as successful as Reform in picking up 2024 votes off Labour at the moment. It doesn’t mean the problem goes away. Labour can’t relax if Corbyn fails.”
And of the new project, he said: “It’s not to be dismissed, but will it take off?”
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