The next General Election could prove to be a massive political earthquake with establishment parties being cast aside in, according to explosive new polling data
The political landscape of the UK could see a massive shift at the next General Election if it were held tomorrow, according to a new “mega poll” looking at the latest polling data.
YouGov’s seat-by-seat analysis, based on a survey of 13,000 individuals, indicates that if an election were held today, his Reform UK party would secure 311 seats in the Commons. This falls just shy of a majority, but leaves no room for any other party to take the reins of the country.
Reform currently boasts only five MPs, so the poll forecasts a huge gain of 306 seats for the party which succeeded UKIP after the Brexit vote. The extensive poll suggests Labour would only manage to win 144 out of 650 seats, a significant drop from the 411 they secured last year.
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The Lib Dems would hold 78 seats while the Tories would be virtually obliterated. The poll indicates that Kemi Badenoch’s party would only secure 45 seats. Meanwhile, the SNP would gain 37 and the Greens would obtain seven.
This would mark Labour’s poorest performance in the Commons since 1931. Even the 2019 general election debacle under Jeremy Corbyn saw Labour secure 202 seats.
High-profile Labour figures predicted to lose their seats include Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner.
The Conservatives are projected to lose 60 per cent of their frontbench, with Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Sir Mel Stride among those expected to be ousted, according to the poll.
However, pollsters note that Reform has yet to be tested nationally in government or opposition. With the party now holding seats for the first time, they will have a record to defend by the time of the next election.
It remains to be seen if this untested movement can hold up to voter expectations under sustained scrutiny.
The poll also follows a summer of anti-immigration protests, when anger at government policy over housing asylum seekers in hotels is at a peak.
Type your postcode into our interactive map to find out if your constituency is set to vote for Reform.