The village is at the centre of the political world as a by-election approaches — it’s also a place where politics is now causing huge division
As you venture into this small village in the South Wales Valleys, the road gently ascends, flanked by narrow streets of terraced houses nestled on the valley side. The area is awash with political campaign boards, largely in colours you might not associate with a former pit village where the Windsor Colliery operated for nearly a century.
The boards proudly displayed outside homes are predominantly the light blue of Reform UK and the green and yellow of Plaid Cymru. Despite Labour’s stronghold over the Caerphilly constituency, in which the village of Abertridwr is found, there are now few red boards in sight as the Senedd by-election looms following the death of Hefin David MS.
By-elections are notorious for their unpredictable outcomes. However, all eyes are on Abertridwr as voters prepare to head to the polls on October 23. Observers across Wales and the UK are keenly watching to gauge the strength of Labour’s vote in this once stronghold area and what it could mean for the upcoming Senedd election and even Keir Starmer’s future.
Tensions were palpable in the Senedd this week when Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Eluned Morgan accused Reform of stirring up division by campaigning on immigration in an area that boasts one of the lowest populations of residents born outside the UK in Wales, with only 2.9% of people born outside of the UK, according to the last census, reports Wales Online.
The most controversial aspect of Reform’s campaign is the prominence it’s giving to attacking the Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary programme. This initiative has seen the Welsh Government allocate £55m over the past six years, merely 0.05% of its £29bn annual budget, primarily on helping Ukrainians settle in Wales whilst conflict destroys their homeland.
‘It’s a dirty race’
Both Ms Morgan and Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth have branded Reform as divisive and accused them of misleading voters by portraying the Nation of Sanctuary as being aimed at asylum seekers when they insist it is not.
They argue it was created to make Wales a welcoming destination for those escaping persecution and conflict, with most funding going towards helping Ukrainian refugees access English classes, secure employment and integrate into their communities.
Yet the forceful condemnation from both Plaid and Labour hasn’t achieved the impact they might have hoped for amongst some Abertridwr residents who believe they’re being branded racist for having concerns about immigration. They feel Labour and Plaid are the ones fuelling division by attacking Reform.
One voter, Jackie, who declined to provide her surname as she claims she’s endured “so much abuse” for supporting Reform but is a Welsh speaker and ex-Plaid supporter told WalesOnline: “Plaid have really rallied it in the village. We’re seen as Nazis, racists. I think that’s lazy politics. They are causing the division because they are leading with fear.”
She also alleges that her posts about Reform, including messages inquiring if anyone would like Reform placards for their homes, have been removed from local community groups by councillors.
Jackie stated that they focus on Reform’s views about immigration, rather than any of their other policies.
“It’s quite a dirty race in that they won’t let Reform voters get off the immigration thing,” she said. However, she expressed concern about the levels of migration into Wales.
“I don’t think it is misleading for Reform to focus on migration, there are hotels in Cardiff that are being used to house asylum seekers. My opinion is that people in the village are not looking further than that, that’s what they see,” she explained.
“At the moment immigration is not a problem here but I think it will become an issue when people start to see them coming into rural, community-based areas. We welcome everybody but people will start to think ‘What about what I need? My house is falling apart’ and then it will start hitting them.”
When questioned about why immigration matters in a Senedd by-election when it is not a devolved issue, Jackie responded: “We’re governed by Westminster on immigration. If they start to say ‘Bring us more, bring us more,’ Plaid won’t say no to that will they?”
‘We need change in this country’
Robert Morgan, 55, is also troubled by immigration concerns. He said: “We need to have change in this country. We shouldn’t have people coming here illegally. I think Reform are the only party who will do that change. I just feel he [Nigel Farage] will make a big difference to us.”
Robert, who was compelled to stop working several years ago due to poor health and lives with his wife Joanne, 54, said he worries about the NHS being swamped and that working-class people appear to keep getting poorer. Discussing asylum seekers, he said: “They’re not earning anything. We’re paying money for them to go into hotels. That’s not where our taxes should be going.”
Robert, a former Conservative supporter, said he has positioned his Reform flags and signs high up after worrying that they would be removed otherwise. It’s occurred at a nearby pub, his wife Joanne said.
Robert added that Plaid campaigners would knock on the doors of Labour voters and have a chat, but he claims they avoid any homes with Reform signs, saying, “we feel alienated”.
One person who finds the emphasis on migration and the criticism of Welsh Labour’s Nation of Sanctuary policy deeply upsetting is Vira Mandrika, 47. She is a member of the Ukrainian community in Caerphilly. This week they lodged a formal complaint to the returning officer, arguing that Reform’s election material constitutes disinformation. Vira, who resides in Bedwas with her Welsh partner, arrived in the UK just over a year ago on a Homes for Ukraine visa.
Back in Ukraine, she held a managerial role in a major firm and since relocating to the UK, she has secured a part-time position as a sales advisor, a job she claims was facilitated by the scheme.
“We as the Ukrainian community want to explain what this scheme actually is and how important it is to be supported. We feel that Reform are misrepresenting the scheme as a problem to Welsh society,” she expressed.
“They make it seem like it’s for ‘illegal’ immigrants, but it’s not, most of the money was spent on Ukrainian refugees, who are absolutely legal here.”
She pointed out that it is the “general language” used in campaign material which is misleading the public. A Reform UK leaflet distributed this week states: “Enablers in Plaid Cymru enthusiastically support Labour’s £55m ‘Nation of Sanctuary’ scheme, which gives preferential treatment to asylum seekers, while the number of migrants crossing the Channel has hit 50,000 during Keir Starmer’s term in office.”
In the Senedd, Reform UK MS Laura Anne Jones argued that the policy “simply puts a neon sign above Wales that suggests the rest of the world come here, possibly illegally, use our services, our benefits, our housing, when our NHS is already stretched to the max and we have veterans sleeping on the street”.
Another leaflet distributed by Reform declares: “Only Reform opposes Labour and Plaid’s £55 million Nation of Sanctuary scheme for asylum seekers.”
A formal complaint regarding this claim has been lodged, alleging it is “false and misleading”. Vira argued that since more than £45 million of this funding was allocated to Ukrainian nationals, they contend the leaflet’s exclusive use of the term “asylum seekers” is deceptive.
Asylum seekers are individuals who have requested protection and are waiting for a determination on their refugee status. They cannot work whilst this decision is pending. Should they be granted refugee status, this often provides a route to applying for indefinite leave to remain in the UK.
By contrast, Ukrainians are not asylum seekers and do not hold refugee status. They were granted temporary visas permitting them to reside in the UK by the UK Government following Russia’s 2022 invasion. They have no route to permanent residency. Ukrainian nationals are simply permitted to live here under the Homes for Ukraine scheme or the Ukraine Family Scheme. In September it was confirmed they would be permitted to apply to extend these visas for a further two years whilst the conflict with Russia continues.
Nevertheless, both Conservative and Labour governments in Westminster have maintained the visas remain temporary. The complaint, shared with WalesOnline, reads: “The leaflet’s wording distorts public understanding of Welsh Government spending and misleads voters about a policy that has primarily supported Ukrainian war refugees – many of whom now work in Welsh communities, including in the NHS, schools, and care sectors.
“I believe this constitutes disinformation in campaign material and should be reviewed for potential breaches of electoral law or standards.”
Reform: ‘We make no apology’
A spokesperson for Reform UK Wales stated that the party offers “no apology for opposing the Nation of Sanctuary plan”.
An ITV Wales poll conducted last month revealed that 49% of people in Wales are against the Nation of Sanctuary, while 34% are in favour. Vira expressed her disappointment at seeing the Nation of Sanctuary being used as a political tool by Reform.
“The programme gave us the possibility to be integrated into Wales,” she said. “I think people should understand how difficult it is to move from your home, have to restart your life from zero and learn a new language. It’s important to be supported with English classes, help to find a job so we can contribute to Wales.”
She also expressed her gratitude for the warm welcome she has received in Wales. Whilst immigration may be dominating campaign literature and sparked the most heated exchange during First Minister’s Questions this week, neighbourhood concerns will also prove crucial in this election.
Both Reform and Plaid supporters highlighted local matters and living costs as key factors shaping their voting intentions. These community issues encompass threatened library shutdowns, demands for additional pedestrian crossings, dog waste bins and speed cameras to prevent local streets being treated like a “race track”.
Joanne and Jackie revealed they were attracted to Reform not through its immigration stance, but via the party’s 2024 General Election manifesto commitment to lift the income tax threshold to £20,000. She explained that as her family aren’t high earners, such a policy would create a “huge impact”.
Reform UK hasn’t yet revealed whether its income tax threshold proposal will feature in its Welsh manifesto before next year’s Senedd election and it remains unclear how the party would finance the policy should it proceed.
Robert expressed interest in Mr Farage’s plans to boost efficiency across councils and the NHS. When questioned about his top priority should Reform triumph, he responded: “Caerphilly needs cleaning up. I don’t know what money is being spent on but it isn’t Caerphilly.”
Kenny Matthews, a local resident who’s been leading the campaign to save Abertridwr library, has his mind set on local issues rather than immigration as he prepares to vote in the upcoming by-election. He expressed his strong opposition to Reform, stating: “I like my Welsh flag. They see Wales as a stepping stone to England, that’s it.”
He accused Reform of stoking tensions about immigration within the community, saying: “Immigration isn’t a problem here. It’s sad to see because there are some horrible people in the world.”
Kenny also praised the “marvellous” nurses and doctors in the area who weren’t born in the UK, expressing gratitude for their service.
‘It’s crunch time — pick which side you’re on’
The political landscape in Caerphilly is heating up, with many predicting a head-to-head battle between Reform’s Llyr Powell and Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle. If the sentiments in Abertridwr are anything to go by, it’s shaping up to be a two-horse race. A victory for either party would send a clear message to Labour, which has historically held the seat.
The Caerphilly seat will be under the microscope, not just for who wins it, but also to gauge public sentiment and effective messaging ahead of next year’s Senedd election.
The First Minister has warned that the nation is at a “crunch point”.
“I genuinely think that people need to decide on which side of this argument they’re on,” she declared. “Do they want to be on the side of division or do they want to be on the side of community cohesion and of hope? That is a question that people are going to have to ask themselves in the next few months, and in Caerphilly, in the next few days.”
Eluned Morgan isn’t alone in believing that the debate over immigration and community division has reached a critical juncture. A recent Senedd committee report on social cohesion in Wales cautioned that without intervention, tensions could spiral into “widespread civil unrest”.
When questioned about allegations that its campaign material on the Nation of Sanctuary was misleading, a spokesperson for Reform UK Wales responded: “We make no apology for opposing the Nation of Sanctuary plan. Polling shows that people in Wales want to see an end to this policy, and we’re the only party in with a chance in Caerphilly that will scrap it. It’s absolutely clear that you want to see this policy scrapped, vote Reform.”