All the key challenges facing Keir Starmer in 2025 – from Donald Trump to May elections

Keir Starmer’s short-lived honeymoon period after Labour’s election landslide last summer now appears a fleeting memory after a rocky start in No10.

In just six months his popularity ratings have tumbled due to a series of unpopular decisions – blamed on the dire inheritance left behind by 14 years of Tory rule.

His team are well aware that in order to revive the figures and secure a second term in office, voters will need to feel the change promised in time for the next election.

In an attempt to strike a more upbeat tone in his first New Year’s message as PM, Mr Starmer said he will push his “Plan for Change” relentlessly in the coming year.

This includes the promise to build 1.5million homes across the country, cutting NHS waiting lists and putting “more cash in your pocket, wherever you live”.

“That is what we will be focusing on,” he said. “A year of rebuilding.” But as he jets back from his first family holiday since entering No10, the PM faces huge international and domestic challenges.

Fixing the NHS and winter crisis

Key to Keir Starmer’s election win was the scale of the crisis facing the NHS after 14 years of Tory rule.

Shortly after taking office the PM promised the “biggest reimagining of our NHS since its birth” after a major report said the service was in a “critical condition”. It will fall to the Health Secretary Wes Streeting to set out the NHS’s 10-year-plan in May – outlining how the government will reform the service.

And with a massive day-to-day cash boost announced at the Budget for the health service, voters will want to see major improvements in 2025.

But there are already fears over the next winter crisis and intense pressures facing the NHS as the service faces a “quad-demic” of flu, norovirus, RSV and rising Covid-19 cases.

Donald Trump’s White House return

No10 will be bracing for the moment Donald Trump re-enters the White House after his inauguration on January 20.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be praying the erratic president-elect, who has threatened blanket tariffs on US imports, is bluffing when it comes to trade with the UK. Experts have previously warned the UK could face a £22billion hit to exports if Trump carries through with his pre-election threat.

Before the Christmas break the government announced the former Cabinet minister Peter Mandleson would take up the post as the UK’s ambassador to the United States. With previous experience as a former EU trade commissioner it will no doubt be hoped he is able to negotiate the UK out of the blanket tariffs.

There is also the issue of Elon Musk – the world’s richest man – who has publicly clashed with Keir Starmer and is rumoured to be mulling a donation to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The X owner has been named as one of the two heads of a new cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency in the incoming Trump administration.

Economy and public sector pay

Gloomy economic figures published just before Christmas came as a blow to Keir Starmer and the Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The duo have promised to boost growth in order to rebuild the country after the mess inherited from 14 years of Tory power.

But the figures showed the UK economy had zero growth between July and September – the months immediately after Labour’s landslide election win. The government will be under immense pressure to reverse the sluggish growth in 2025.

With a spending review on the horizon the Chancellor may be forced to grapple with more difficult decisions – potentially putting her on collision course with other Cabinet ministers.

There will also be tense negotiations over public sector pay after the government proposed a 2.8% hike for over a million public sector workers. Unions have already expressed anger – Unite described the offer as “insulting” – and there are fears industrial action could be on the cards once more.

And the PM’s pledge to rebuild the country with 1.5million new homes by the end of the Parliament – seen as essential for growth – will come under intense scrutiny.

May elections

Keir Starmer will face his first major electoral test since winning power in May.

After five months in office both the PM’s popularity rating and Labour’s position in the polls have slumped after controversial decisions, such as the cut to winter fuel payments.

Mr Starmer and his team will be hoping to begin turning this around in 2025 – but it may come too late at the local elections in England in the spring. With voters still anxious about the state of the economy and the NHS, the party will be bracing for a potentially difficult evening on May 1.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will also be hoping to capitalise on voters’ dissatisfaction while new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch will be praying to avert disaster.

Small boats and immigration

The number of asylum seekers attempting to make the dangerous Channel crossing hit 38,816 last year, according to figures released on Wednesday.

The Mirror has also reported on estimates that 78 people lost their lives, including one-month old baby Maryam Bahez, at the border between the UK and France.

Keir Starmer will face pressure this year to deliver on his promise to smash the smuggling gangs to stop the small boat crossings. There are also calls to open up more safe and legal routes to deter asylum seekers making the journey in the first place.

Separately, the PM has also hit out against figures published last year (2024) showing net migration to the UK hit a record high of 906,000 in 2023.

He has refused to set “arbitrary” targets to reduce migration – pointing out the Tories’ failure to ever deliver on their goals – but said he will cut the numbers. It’s an issue both Reform UK and the Conservatives will keep pushing in 2025.

Winter fuel and WASPI women rows

Expect the row over Labour’s decision to axe the winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners to rumble on.

In the summer the Chancellor Rachel Reeves axed the payment of up to £300 for all but the very poorest OAPs on pension credit. The decision provoked outrage at the time and many in the party believe it was the first major misstep of the new Labour government.

According to government modelling – published in November – the cut to the payments could result in 100,000 more pensioners in relative poverty. But as the winter months bite and articles detail the suffering of pensioners, expect the government to face immense pressure – and more calls for a major U-turn.

The PM may also face a rebellion in the Commons in the coming weeks if the opposition parties force a vote on his decision to reject compensation for the WASPI women.

Child poverty strategy

In the spring the government is expected to publish a major strategy on child poverty. This was launched shortly after Keir Starmer won office to address the four million children living in poverty in the UK and the 800,000 kids using food banks.

It was also launched during a debate on the two-child benefit limit – a policy blamed for trapping children in poverty and caused massive divisions in Labour.

The PM has resisted calls to scrap the austerity-era policy but it will be reviewed as part of the government’s child poverty strategy.

If there is no commitment or timeframe to scrap the two-child benefit limit when the strategy is published in the spring the PM will have an almighty row on his hands.

Prison crisis

A major review into how criminals are punished will be published in the spring.

The sentencing review, led by former Justice Secretary David Gauke, is looking into new ways to discipline offenders in a bid to ease pressure on overflowing prisons. It will also consider how sentencing is used for offences primarily committed against women and girls, as well as looking at the possibility of creating specific domestic abuse offences.

The new Labour administration was forced to release thousands of prisoners early after the Tories left the criminal justice system in meltdown. Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood said the scheme has bought the government some time but that she can’t rule out having to bring in future measures to deal with jail overcrowding.

As the country heads into 2025, the prisons’ crisis is far from over for the PM.

Ukraine and Gaza

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will continue to be top of the agenda for Keir Starmer.

The conflict will enter its third year in February and there remains massive uncertainty over how president-elect Donald Trump will react. During the US election he said he would end the war “in a day” and No10 will inevitably be wary over how that might look in practice.

In his first Christmas message as PM, Mr Starmer also said he wished for peace in an increasingly fragile Middle East.

Israel’s war with Gaza has previously divided Labour and many of the left of the party were – and are – furious at Mr Starmer’s response to the conflict. This challenge will continue in 2025. The death count in Gaza has now passed 45,000 and expect more pressure on the PM to suspend all arms sales to Israel.

Brexit reset

Keir Starmer jetted to European capitals in his first few months inNo10in a bid to reset strained relations with EU leaders after the bitter Brexit years.

The PM has accepted an invitation to attend a retreat with EU leaders in early 2025 and then there will be the first major UK-EU summit in the spring.

Downing Street will be hoping to start the firing gun on its manifesto promise to improve Britain’s trading relationship with the bloc by “tearing down unnecessary barriers”.

While there is now a healthy amount of goodwill on both sides of the Channel, how the PM will get there without major compromises remains uncertain.

EU leaders are pushing for a youth mobility scheme – allowing under 30s to live and work in both the UK and EU freely for a time-limited period – which they see as key to a reset. But the PM has repeatedly insisted he has no plans for any such scheme.