Astronomers have raised the likelihood that Asteroid 2024YR4 could hit the Earth in 2032, bringing it on a collision course with several of the world’s most population-rich regions
NASA has increased the chances that a feared “city killer” asteroid could hit Earth – and warned that 100 million people live in the “risk doze” of the impending disaster.
While currently only a blip on astronomers’ telescopes, Asteroid 2024YR4 is cruising through the Milky Way with astonishing speeds, travelling at around 17 kilometres per second – or 38,028 miles per hour – from its current perch in the Constellation of Cancer. The massive space object is around 40 to 90 metres long and currently heading away from Earth, but is expected to loop around and head back towards the planet within the decade.
The expected track, which would see 2024YR4 return to our planet by around 2032, has sparked concern around the world, as scientists believe the sizeable chunk of rock would pack a punch equivalent to around 500 atomic bomb. Adding to the growing fear is a recent odds forecast, which has increased the chances such an impact.
The latest assessment from NASA increases probability of impact from 2.2 percent to 2.6 percent, translating to a roughly one-in-38 chance of impact. Officials have warned the probability could increase in the months and years to come, as space agencies come to better understand the path 2024YR4 is taking.
NASA’s Molly Wasser, the Outreach Coordinator for the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center, said it is possible the “impact possibility will continue to rise”. She said: “As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known.
“It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard… It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.” The European Space Agency (ESA) projects that, if it does, the asteroid will make landfall at 8.52am GMT on Wednesday, December 22, with NASA painting a “risk corridor” home to more than 100million people.
David Rankin, an engineer with Nasa’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, believes it could land anywhere inside a broad strip that includes the tip of South America, regions in the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea and Africa. While the strip is large, the asteroid is only expected to be powerful enough to create a 50 kilometre (30 mile) blast zone.
The increase in odds of this impact, slight as it is, will alarm people keeping an eye on the asteroid, but the current impact chance could well decrease over the next seven years as astronomers better appraise the asteroid’s path. Astronomers assigned a similar 2.7 percent collision chance to asteroid 99942 Apophis in 2004, but it has since been discounted, with scientists convinced there is no major risk it could make impact in the next century.