If Iran miscalculates its reaction to the US strikes it could cross the threshold for all-out war – but it desperately needs an off-ramp, allowing it to save face but not go too far in its revenge
As the world braces for an escalation in the Middle East war and hopes US strikes on Iran will not spark a bigger conflict nobody can predict the outcome. An escalation is likely before diplomacy prevails but it is certain that the US attacks will affect the region for years.
And that escalation is when world leaders become nervous, desperately trying to hold back the tit-fot-tat march towards all out war and trying to stop other countries joining. Here we examine the possible outcomes of this latest outbreak between the US and Iran, as Israel continues to hammer Israel and threatens revenge against the US.
All-out war on US and Israel
The worst possible outcome is least likely and that involves Iran declaring all-out war on America and Israel. This would happen if the Iranian regime miscalculated and goes too far when it makes a revenge gesture of reply to the United States.
The problem is that US President Donald Trump has warned Tehran will be hit by far worse if it does hit US interests so that starts a cycle of escalating violence. I believe if Iran does something below the threshold for war then America may be forced to let it pass and give Iran that off-ramp, saving face and avoiding all-out war.
That would involve a much wider conflict, sucking in US allies such as the UK and Europe, leaving Iran to persuade China, North Korea and Russia to come to its aid.
Iran starting negotiations again
The best possible outcome is Iran backing off and starting negotiations again, relative peace even though it means Iran would continue its occasional campaign of terror against America. Extremely careful diplomatic handling could mean Iran makes a gesture of defiance against the US, perhaps hitting a building or a site and not killing anyone. This would play to the nationalists screaming for revenge back home and if no American is killed then Iran may get away with it.
But it is unthinkable that Iran will let the US strikes pass without a gesture of violence in return – and precisely what that will be will determine the next few years for the Middle East. There is a tsunami of back-channel negotiations buzzing away in the background between the US, Israel and Iran and the wider region. This may include Iran learning what it can and cannot get away with.
Terror attacks and tension
Iran could opt to let this costly conflict rumble on for months even though each side is rapidly running out of missiles. I believe this is a possible outcome and will mean escalating Mossad assassinations and other covert operations against Iran, with Tehran hitting back with terror.
Despite a huge security clampdown Israel could be badly-hit with terror attacks such as suicide bombs, other terror attacks and even kidnappings. This could involve mass casualty incidents and very easily could spread towards Israel’s allikes such as the US and UK.
This is perhaps a grey zone war fought in the shadows and would be terrifying for civilians in the west. Iran is very experienced at exporting terror on the orders of the shadowy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. And it is equally good at persuading third parties to act on their behalf.