Vladimir Putin will not see any reason to be deterred from a war with the West were the US not involved, an expert has warned, with war against Russia branded ‘inevitable’
Russian provocations are making a war “inevitable” with western Europe unless measures to deter Vladimir Putin are taken, say experts.
Estonian defence minister Hanno Pevkur said Moscow’s recent spate of hybrid attacks are aimed at forcing NATO members to prioritise their own defence over support for Ukraine. And now Keir Giles of Chatham House claims European countries need to prepare themselves better as a unified group for a conflict with Russia.
“I fear a kinetic war with Russia is looking inevitable, because the measures to prevent such a war are still not being taken. Russia today has little to deter it from taking on the West should the US be neutralised as a factor,” he told the Express.
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Mr Giles, author of Who Will Defend Europe?, added: “Despite all the rhetoric and promises, we see little concretely achieved, as was shown when Poland experienced just a tiny fraction of the drone waves suffered by Ukraine every night. It would have no way of dealing with that scale of Russian drone attack.”
Former Estonian deputy defence minister Lauri Almann said all-out conflict could only be avoided “if we can show resolve and strength”. He added: “Russia respects strength, and that’s the only message that more or less has worked.”
Prof Mark Galeotti, author of Putin’s Wars, warned that Moscow’s reckless decision-making makes conflict more likely. He said: “Russia does not actually want war, but the more aggressive and reckless they are, the greater the risks. Putin didn’t intend to be involved in this war in Ukraine. All kinds of calculations can be made that seem perfectly sensible but just happen to be deeply stupid.”
He stressed the need for credible deterrence and added: “Putin is pretty risk-averse. He likes to play daring and threatening, but actually he operates cautiously. When they do get pushback, the Russians have a tendency to pull back. The thing is to actually have the capacity to be able to offer pushback.”
The warnings come as the Estonian defence minister said Moscow’s recent spate of hybrid attacks – from drone incursions and airspace violations to cyber strikes and election interference – are designed to force NATO members to focus on their own defences at the expense of support for Ukraine.
“Russia is deliberately pushing all of us, the NATO allies, to deal with our own matters,” Pevkur said. “There have been air incidents and airspace violations, we have had drone incidents, cyberattacks and even the Moldovan elections.
“They conduct different hybrid operations and disinformation campaigns so that we take focus off Ukraine. This is one of the strategic goals of Russia – they want to operate freely in Ukraine.”
Estonia, which shares a 210-mile border with Russia, has experienced the pressure directly. Last week three MiG-31 fighter jets entered its airspace. “This is unprecedented. We have not seen a manned aircraft in NATO airspace for such a long time,” said Pevkur.
“Russia is claiming that they were not in our airspace, but we have the radar pictures and were monitoring them long before they entered. The Italian aircraft gave very clear signals and we contacted them many times via radio frequencies. They ignored us.”
The pattern is clear, Mr Pevkur said. He continued: “Russia is testing how far they can go to destabilise society. Is it okay to kill someone? Is it okay to disrupt the air traffic? Is it okay to disrupt the undersea cables? We have been living next to Russia for centuries. We know how they operate. We know what they do.”
A call by US president Donald Trump for any Russian plane violating NATO airspace to be shot down was echoed by Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna, who said: “The message must be unequivocal: future violations will meet a response – including, if necessary, the interception and downing of intruding aircraft.”
And Pevkur said Estonia was ready, stating: “We value the society we have built and will not allow Russia to take it away from us. When there is an intention to start a war from Russia, then there will be a response, a very heavy response, a very quick response.”
For that to be effective, however, NATO must learn from Ukraine, he said, adding: “We must be more precise, increase our speed, and hit them from a much greater distance than they can hit us.”