Members’ polls point to sacked Cabinet minister Lucy Powell being crowned Labour’s deputy leader – but Bridget Phillipson’s team believe there is still a path to victory
Seven weeks ago Angela Rayner was forced to resign as Labour ’s deputy leader – triggering a contest in the party no one wanted.
Her successor will be unveiled at a low-key event at Labour’s HQs this morning. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood in her capacity as the chair of the party’s governing body – the National Executive Committee (NEC) – will announce the winner at 10am.
There will be no celebratory special members’ conference, but the winner will be given the chance to make a short speech. Congratulatory remarks are also expected from Keir Starmer.
If the members’ polls are to be believed, a minister the PM sacked from the Cabinet on the same day as Ms Rayner’s abrupt departure, will be crowned deputy leader. Just this week Lucy Powell – the MP for Manchester Central – had a commanding 16-point lead over her rival in the contest, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
READ MORE: Angela Rayner breaks silence over HMRC row and vows to pay back tax
Ms Phillipson’s campaign still believe there is a path to victory today – pointing to union affiliate votes – and are hoping to pull off a surprise victory. They have also highlighted her work in government, pushing popular measures such as the roll-out of free school breakfasts and expanding free school meals.
To her disadvantage among a membership frustrated at government mis-steps, Ms Phillipson has been viewed as No10’s preferred candidate. It’s a point the Cabinet minister – who was the target of anonymous briefings of being in line for the sack ahead of last month’s reshuffle – views with a degree of irony.
“I do slightly have to laugh because there’s this idea swirling around somehow that I’m No10’s preferred candidate for all of this,” she told the BBC last month.
Some backbench MPs have shrugged off the contest as being irrelevant. Unlike previous deputy leaders in a Labour government – including Ms Rayner, Harriet Harman and the late John Prescott – Ms Powell is not expected to sit in Cabinet if she wins.
It’s a point she’s attempted to use to her advantage to members on the campaign trail – styling herself as a full-time deputy leader, without the time constraints of a Cabinet role.
But one MP replied frankly when asked who they wanted to win: “I don’t care.” They questioned the relevance of the deputy leader role given David Lammy has already been appointed as Ms Rayner’s successor as Deputy Prime Minister. “I think the role should be abolished. It made more sense in Opposition,” they said.
Others expect a Powell victory to send a blunt message to Downing Street. “It would be an acknowledgement that something needs to change,” one MP said.
Another senior MP supporting Ms Powell said if she does win today “It’s an absolute sign that things need to change and that they need to listen to a wider range of voices”. They added: “They’ve thrown everything at this campaign and if they lose it is proof that they can’t continue as they are.”
Ms Powell also told The Mirror earlier this month she can deliver tough messages to No10 to avoid a repeat of the benefit cuts fiasco. She insisted she would not be “throwing bricks” at Mr Starmer if she wins but called for a “course correction” after Labour’s bumpy first year.
But it is clear there is concern inside Downing Street. One government insider said: “I like Lucy but she causes problems. Everything she says will end up causing a row.”
During the course of the contest to replace Ms Rayner one message has been clear from both candidates in the race: the Tory-era two-child benefit limit needs to go. Ms Phillipson, who has vowed to be a voice at the Cabinet table for members, has said the policy has had a “devastating” impact on children in poverty.
Ms Powell has said it’s a “no brainer” the policy needs to be ditched. “We need to be a lot clearer that we’re in favour of the principle, that there’s an urgency to it, and that we’re straining every sinew to prioritise that as a measure in this Budget,” she recently told us.
If there is no commitment in next month’s Budget to axe the policy hated by Labour members it may be the first public row between Mr Starmer and his new elected deputy leader.