A study by think-tank British Future called on Keir Starmer to pledge to cut small boat crossings by 75% in three years by adopting a ‘bold’ new strategy with France
Keir Starmer’s best shot at taking on Nigel Farage is ramping up a returns deal with France and cutting small boat crossings by 75%, a new report says.
Former Labour Home Secretary Charles Clarke called on ministers to consider the “realistic and humanitarian” approach. Polling published today suggests almost half of voters would support up to 50,000 asylum seekers being allowed into the UK under a ‘one in, one out deal’.
Mr Starmer is pushing ahead with a deal reached with French President Emmanuel Macron, which will see small boat arrivals returned in exchange for people with a legitimate asylum case.
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Initially it is thought to be capped at 50 per week, but this should be scaled up by 10 or 20 times, British Future says. The Home Office says the first returns are imminent, but it was dealt a blow when the High Court issued a temporary block on one of the first planned deportations.
A report by think-tank British Future said: “Making it ten or twenty times bigger, to take up to 50,000 refugees in a controlled way across the Channel, could still have public support if it formed part of a new deal where France would take back those who crossed without permission.
“Our analysis suggests that this is the Prime Minister’s best shot at an approach that really could significantly reduce the number of boats…” It says ex-US President Joe Biden managed to drive illegal crossings from Mexico down by 81% in a year with a similar approach.
Its report urged the Government to set a goal of reducing small boat arrivals by three quarters over the next three years. The document claimed Mr Macron would rather work with ally Mr Starmer than face a successor “bent on confrontation”.
Polling of over 3,000 adults by Ipsos found 55% – including over half of Reform voters – support a one in one out deal, with just 15% opposing it. And 48% would still be in favour if the cap was 50,000, it found, with 18% against it.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future and co-author of the report, said: “The new Home Secretary needs to seize the initiative on small boats with a real-world plan that is bold enough to have an impact but founded on hard evidence of what works.
“The foundations are in place in the UK-France deal. The US experience shows what can be achieved when this approach is delivered at scale.”
Mr Clarke, who was Home Secretary from 2004 to 2006, said the report “demands serious and urgent consideration” by the Government. He said: “It is constructive, creative and establishes genuine control based on successful practical experience. Theirs is a realistic and humanitarian route to effective action.”
Mr Katwala pointed to Mr Biden’s success introducing capped legal routes and stronger cooperation with Mexico. The report states: “The result in the US was that it simply wasn’t worth the expense and the risk of paying the smugglers anymore, undermining their business model entirely.
“If you used them to try and cross the border, your chances of getting to the US and staying there were slim. But if you signed up to the official route and joined the queue,in time you had a chance to enter the country legally.”
It said Mr Farage’s plan to send refugees back to despots including the Taliban is “reprehensible”, and said leaving the Refugee Convention would make it far more difficult to agree return deals with stable governments. Mr Katwala said: “Most people would prefer an orderly, controlled and humane system to the populist threat to tear everything up, which appeals only to a vocal minority.”
A Home Office spokeswoman said: “Abuse of the immigration system is a threat to public safety, and we’re tackling it head-on with our closest international partners. This government’s reset of key relationships is already driving a sharp rise in returns and disruption of criminal networks since July last year.
“Thanks to the new UK-France Treaty, people arriving in small boats can now be detained and sent back to France, with the first returns under the ‘one in, one out’ pilot scheme expected to begin imminently.”
On Tuesday the High Court gave an interim order preventing an Eritrean man being returned to France. Yesterday Technology Secretary Liz Kendall insisted: “This decision is disappointing, but it won’t prevent the rest of that deal going ahead.”
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