Vladimir Putin is often seen as a master tactician by his admirers, but he faces pressure from all sides as the world waits to see what his next move will be in the Ukraine ceasefire neogitations
Vladimir Putin is in a ‘checkmate’ situation as he finds himself caught between hyper-nationalists and Donald Trump’s push for him to accept a ceasefire deal with Ukraine.
It comes as Russia rejected a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire drawn up by the US and Ukraine after talks in Saudi Arabia in Tuesday. When asked about the deal at a press conference, Putin suggested he would not agree to the current iteration.
“We agree with the proposal for a ceasefire to cease hostilities, but we proceed from the fact that this ceasefire should lead to an enduring peace, and should remove the root cause of this crisis,” Putin said at a press conference alongside Belarus’ president Alexander Lukashenko. As Russian troops attempt to repel a counteroffensive in their own territory of Kursk, Putin said Ukranian troops can no longer leave the area, and will have to “surrender or die”.
READ MORE: ‘Land-grabbing schemer’ Vladimir Putin ‘will agree Ukraine peace deal now then invade AGAIN later’
The comments came as Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow for high-level talks with Putin, aimed at stopping Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The visit was confirmed by US officials and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, who said the meeting would be held behind closed doors and Russia would not agree to the current ceasefire proposal would “give us nothing”, adding it would “only give the Ukrainians a chance to regroup, consolidate their forces and keep doing the same in the future.”
He said Putin wants a “long-term peace settlement that takes into account Moscow’s interests and concerns”. But, Putin could find himself in a difficult position, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the ball was not in Russia’s court after Ukraine’s “breakthrough” acceptance of a 30-day ceasefire plan across all fronts.
According to Patrick Bishop, military author, journalist and historian, “Putin’s prevarications were entirely predictable”. Writing for the Daily Mail, he said: “Confronted with a difficult situation, his reflex is to try to buy time. And there is no doubt that Ukraine signing up to the American proposal in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah has put him on the spot.”
Putin is seen by many of his admirers as a ‘master chess player’, calculating his moves carefully. According to Mr Bishop: “If so, he is now facing the unfortuatne position that is known in the game as ‘zugzwang’. Simply put, this means that Russia’s obligation to make the next move puts it at a disadvantage in the spellbinding diplomatic game playing out over Ukraine – wherever Putin places his piece will bring danger”.
The latest developments mean Putin is finally facing the consequences of his gamble invading Ukraine, with Mr Bishop explaining: “His reputation as a master tactician is about to be tested – possibly to destruction. Even autocrats cannot survive without a degree of public approval, or at least acquiescence. Although Putin has nothing to fear from the cowed masses, who will no doubt welcome talk of peace, he must tread very carefully with Russia’s vociferous and volatile hyper-nationalists.
“Their websites and social media channels are already throbbing with anger at the sell-out they see coming. Ending the war without tangible gains like large chunks of captured terrotory and the military and political emasculation of Ukraine will look like treachery to the fire-eaters and an insult to the memory of the hundreds of thousands who have been killed and maimed in pursuit of the imperialist dream Putin was supposed to make reality.”
It’s pretty much impossible to ascertain how much of a threat they post, or how the Russian military could react to what may feel like defeat, as Russia works in an opaque manner, as it did years ago. While Putin may believe he can go toe-to-toe with the hardliners and win, he still faces a potential bruise to his own ego.
Putin launched the war against advice from many of his closest advisers, and it was a high-risk decision as the leader knew he would either be remembered as the man who brought Ukraine back into Russia’s control, or lost it forever. And much of that is now down to Donald Trump.
Putin and Trump seemed to have better relations than those of previous US presidents, mostly based on flattery and schmoozing – no matter how insincere. But now, Trump is looking for real, tangible proof of their bond. While the US president is known for his swift imposition of sanctions on nations who do not fall into line with his desires, for Putin they may not represent such a threat.
For years, Russia has been the target of numerous sanctions from various countries around the world, and has survived, meaning Putin most likely sees little to fear from vague economic and financial penalties if he does not toe the line. But Trump could lean on Saudi Arabia to produce oil production, which may cause Putin more pain as the price of crude could drop, reducing the flow of petrodollars which are paying for the Russian war effort.
For now, the world is waiting for Putin to make his next move before the board can be reassessed to see if there is a chance at ending years of brutal bloodshed.