Weather experts have said Brits are ‘twice as likely’ to feel this change during the summer months
The Met Office predicts that the UK is twice as likely to experience a hot summer this year. Experts also warn that there could be an increased risk of heatwaves this season as summer is officially here.
This forecast follows the country’s sunniest spring on record, with around 630 hours of sunshine recorded across the nation between March 1 and May 27, marking it as ‘the driest spring for over a century’. On Saturday, May 31, temperatures surged to 8C above the average for this time of year, hinting at a potentially scorching summer season.
The Met Office’s three-month outlook suggests that the likelihood of a hot summer is higher than usual, bringing an increased risk of heatwaves and heat-related impacts. The forecast indicates that it is 2.3 times more likely than normal for the UK to experience a hot meteorological summer, which starts today (June 1) and ends on August 31.
During these months, the average temperatures across the UK range from 10 to 17C, with the south east of England experiencing higher averages of 16 to 17C. The summers of 2018 and 2021-2023 were also predicted to be hot, with data showing it has been a decade since the last time a summer was forecasted to be cool, in 2015.
The latest outlook also suggests that the levels of rainfall and wind speed for the next three months are likely to be near average. The Met Office’s three-month outlook doesn’t pinpoint weather for specific days or weeks, but rather offers a glimpse into potential temperature, rainfall, and wind speed trends over the entire period.
A Met Office spokesperson said: “While the current three-month outlook shows an increased chance of a hot summer, the temperature signals for this summer are similar to those for recent years and consistent with our warming climate. The increased chance of hotter than average temperatures is not a guarantee of prolonged hot weather or heatwaves, but it does mean that heatwave conditions could be reached at times.
“However, it’s important to bear in mind that an increased chance of hot conditions could also reflect a mix of hot and cool days, warm nights, or less extreme levels of warmth rather than continual heatwave conditions specifically.”
When is it officially a heatwave?
We hear the term “heatwave” increasingly, but there are specific criteria that must be met for weather to officially qualify as a heatwave. The Met Office defines a heatwave as “an extended period of hot weather relative to the expected conditions of the area at that time of year, which may be accompanied by high humidity.”
In the UK, a heatwave is officially declared when an area records daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold for at least three consecutive days. This threshold varies by county, but typically ranges between 25C and 28C.
Places like Wales and Scotland must go above 25C. The highest targets of 28C are held in London and parts of the East Midlands due to “differences in climate”.