Experts warn that Moscow is expanding its military footprint across northwestern Russia – suggesting a calculated effort to bolster the region following Finland and Sweden’s recent accession to NATO
New satellite imagery has revealed a dramatic surge in Russian military activity near the Finnish border – a chilling echo of the troop movements seen in the lead-up to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Experts warn that Moscow is rapidly expanding its military footprint across key bases in northwestern Russia, suggesting a calculated effort to bolster the region following Finland and Sweden’s recent accession to NATO. Troop housing, aircraft infrastructure, and refurbished Soviet-era facilities are springing up in strategic locations – a clear signal the Kremlin is preparing for a potential showdown with the West. The images, obtained by Swedish broadcaster SVT from Planet Labs, show intensified activity at four military sites: Kamenka, Petrozavodsk, Severomorsk-2, and Olenya.
In Kamenka, just 35 miles from the Finnish border, more than 130 military tents have been erected since February – enough to accommodate an estimated 2,000 soldiers. The area, once undeveloped, is now busy with military presence. “This is a sign of increasing activity,” said Finnish military analyst Emil Kastehelmi, speaking to SVT.
The development appears to be Moscow’s long-promised retaliation to Finland and Sweden joining NATO – a move that extended the alliance’s border with Russia by over 800 miles. At the time, Russian officials threatened “military-technical response measures”.
“When we applied for NATO membership, Russia said it would take such steps. We are now seeing that happen,” Sweden’s Chief of Defence Michael Claesson said.
The latest military escalation bears haunting similarities to late 2021, when US intelligence spotted Russian troops building near Ukraine’s border. Months later, Russia invaded Ukraine.
Satellite images show extensive construction at Petrozavodsk, around 100 miles from the Finnish border. Three vast warehouses – believed to be vehicle storage halls – have appeared, and are likley capable of housing dozens of armoured vehicles, with more still under construction. Further north, the previously dormant Severomorsk-2 airbase appears to be operational again. It now hosts several helicopters and shows signs of recent refurbishment. The base lies just 70 miles from Norway and 110 miles from Finland.
At Olenya airbase, roughly 90 miles from the Finnish border, Russian bombers are reportedly being used to strike targets in Ukraine, according to Kyiv.
Finland’s Deputy Chief of Defence, Lieutenant General Vesa Virtanen, warned last month that Moscow is “deliberately testing NATO’s unity” to see if it will trigger Article 5 – the alliance’s collective defence clause – using hybrid tactics like cyberattacks and mass cross-border migration. Now, he says, the Kremlin is shifting toward more overt military deployments.
“During the war [in Ukraine], there were about 20,000 soldiers and four standby brigades. Now we see new infrastructure and, as soon as they’re able, more troops in this region,” he said.
According to Virtanen, Russia is reorganising its forces into an army corps comprising four to five divisions and support units. “There will be more troops there in the future than before the Ukraine war,” he added. He said Finland stands ready, and has done so for decades.