Donald Trump has struck an increasingly imperialistic tone since his White House return, stating on multiple occasions his desire to annex the Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada and the Gaza Strip
Donald Trump could take control of Greenland – even if it votes for full independence, an expert has revealed.
Trump has repeatedly vowed to seize the semi-autonomous territory that is a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, which is lucrative in rare-earth minerals and potential offshore oil and natural gas that remains untapped. The Republican first floated a proposal to buy the island during his first term in 2019, and has now doubled-down on his threat to take it.
“We need Greenland for national security. One way or the other we’re gonna get it,” he told Congress, prompting applause and laughter from a number of politicians, including Vice-President JD Vance. Polls suggest that few Greenlanders, who headed to the polls on Tuesday, want their island to become part of the United States.
But Trump believes he could “hypothetically” force a deal with the ruling party by cutting off Greenland’s access to the Northwest Passage (NWP) via a naval blockade, polar expert and historian Dr Lina Parker said. The 900-mile-long sea channel, which runs from the eastern edge of Greenland to the Arctic waters of Canada, is said to be crucial to the island’s future income.
Currently, ships travelling between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans must take a much longer route around Cape Horn or through the Panama Canal, a journey that adds thousands of miles and more than two weeks of travel time. But when the Arctic Sea ice melts – predicted by 2045 – the NWP will become a vital shipping shortcut, slashing global trade routes by 4,000 miles and becoming the “trade route of all world trade routes”, she said.
Without it, the resource-rich island’s ability to trade internationally would be severely restricted, potentially leaving its economy “scuppered.” Greenland’s leaders would have little option but to hand over control to to the US in return for unrestricted access. Dr Parker said in The European magazine: “There is, of course, no indication that the President is considering or would ever take this unprecedented step.
“But – hypothetically speaking – it would be the natural course of action for any world leader looking to land-grab without a full-blown invasion. Any nation that controls the Northwest Passage will control a vital artery for global trade.
“For Greenland, a country that Trump already has in his crosshairs, this could spell disaster. Having free and unrestricted passage through it would unlock significant opportunities for its resource exports, tourism, and international trade. If it were blocked from using it, Greenland’s economy could be scuppered.”
Control of the NWP could be “achieved relatively simply” through a naval blockade consisting of 40 destroyers and frigates stationed at strategic locations between Nuuk in southwest Greenland and Qaanaaq in the north. A barricade would stop ships from Greenland and hostile countries such as Russia and China accessing the route. An additional 10 warships from Greenland and hostile countries like Russia and China accessing the route.
Another 10 warships anchored at Lancaster Sound, Canada, which has been described as an “obvious choke point,” would further reinforce control. Another 20 icebreakers would be needed to stand on permanent standby to clear the ice route.
The total cost of such a blockade could exceed $50 billion (£38.7bn) and take up to a decade to establish. But Dr Parker said the expense would be “a drop in the ocean” compared to the economic and political cost of an all-out invasion of Greenland and its NATO allies.
Canada is unlikely to confront the US should a naval blockage break out with only a full-on attack by sea and land able to “dislodge” them. Dr Parker, the co-founder of the British Modern Military History Society, said: “As it stands, the Passage is largely impassable and is likely to remain that way until 2045 – the year experts expect global warming to have melted much of the sea ice.
“By that point, America’s new naval fleet could be ready for action, hypothetically, of course. Using the icebreakers to clear a path, the vessels could slowly, surely, and surreptitiously make their way up and set anchor along the 900-mile Passage with ease.”
She added: “With mounting pressure from the electorate and increasing global competition for Arctic resources, its ruling party may have no other choice than to hand over control to the U.S. in exchange for Passage access. Hypothetically speaking, this would be blackmail. In modern politics, however, it would pass for diplomacy.”