Vladimir Putin’s Russia has prodded away at the west, ordering assassinations, espionage, constantly testing response times – but is Moscow stepping out of the shadows?
Russia firing drones into Polish airspace is a major and deeply worrying escalation that is testing NATO almost to its limits. It is likely taking the west closer to direct military action to defend against Moscow’s aggression than in decades of steadily increasing threat.
For years now, Moscow’s bullishness in the region has largely fallen below the threshold for war and the NATO ‘article five’ defence pact being triggered. This means if one NATO member is attacked the rest will help it respond so if you attack one you attack all – and it works as a deterrent.
READ MORE: Poland-Russia LIVE: Millions warned to take shelter after Putin’s ‘act of war’
But the so-called ‘grey zone’ between peace and war activities of Moscow’s spies and special forces are becoming increasingly overt. It is possible the unmanned craft were accidentally fired into Poland, another sign of just how terrible and irresponsible the Russian military is.
Incursions into Polish airspace have happened before, but never at this level of danger. Or it could also be a deliberate test – a jab at NATO like a boxer would, to test how the alliance responds to Russia going too far.
We have seen this many times before as Moscow has for years been monitoring UK and other European military response times. NATO cannot simply get used to these events because next time it could be a building full of people that gets hit.
NATO leaders are thrashing out how to respond and the world is entering a dangerous and worrying phase in the Ukraine conflict. Russia has been ratcheting up the threats for years.
Witness the seemingly pointless but frequent flights towards UK airspace by Russian Tupolev Tu-160 bombers – dubbed “Blackjack” – all of them signs of Russia testing NATO reaction times. So far Poland has responded to all of this by calling Russia’s latest move an “act of aggression,” falling short of calling it an act of war which it was if it was deliberate.
There is no doubt the world is dangerously close to the Ukrainian conflict spilling over the border and for whatever reason Russian leader Vladimir Putin feels emboldened. Russian missiles have strayed over borders before but never in this number and NATO jets shooting them down, is technically NATO opening fire on Russian military assets.
This drone firing came three days after Russia’s largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the war began, an assault that hit a key government building in Kyiv for the first time. European leaders are becoming increasingly alarmed, some more than others, but are trying to suppress the temptation to keep the tone below one of war.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said: “Russia’s war is escalating, not ending. Last night in Poland we saw the most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began, and indications suggest it was intentional, not accidental.”
But Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda said: “Russia is deliberately expanding its aggression, posing an ever-growing threat to Europe.” And Estonia’s foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said that the overnight attacks on Ukraine and violations of Polish airspace were “yet another stark reminder that Russia is not just a threat to Ukraine, but to all of Europe and NATO.
The one thing that Russian President Vladimir Putin fears is consequences to his actions, a real response to him threatening NATO. Our leaders will be thinking long and hard about what they can do to inflict those consequences in a way that makes Putin realise he cannot get away with it.
Sanctions do work but a military response must be being carefully considered. And in a round of tit-for-tit exchanges it is very difficult to pull back from the brink of war.