Whoever thinks that shopping isn’t a science is in for a surprise as new research has found that game theory is at play when you try to bid on an item – and you could be using it to your advantage
Have you ever wondered why your bids on eBay never seem to be accepted? Does it feel like bargaining for items on the platform is almost like a science? Well, it turns out, that’s because it is.
A team of researchers have discovered there really is a scientific explanation behind the decisions made by sellers – and you could be using these new findings to boost your shopping success. The research found buyers on eBay were discouraged by slow rejections of their offers, and as a result, were less likely to make counter offers.
However, it also revealed a slow response time from sellers could mean the offer was close to their desired price. One of the study’s authors, Ian Krajbich, told phys.org: “The finding adds a new element to game theory – the scientific study of strategic interactions – by considering not just what people choose, but how quickly they choose it.”
The team analysed a set of data from 2012 and 2013 that eBay recently made available – which included about one million bargaining exchanges. Researchers also created a few accounts of their own, from which they made thousands of offers to sellers.
Sellers, it turns out, were slower to reject better offers and faster to reject worse ones. The longer the seller took to reject the first offer, the more likely they were to accept the buyer’s second offer. In fact, the researchers were able to predict whether a buyer’s second offer was likely to be accepted based on how quickly they rejected the first offer.
Krajbich said buyers should take a slow rejection as a positive sign that they are close, and make a second offer. “Take a slow response as a good sign rather than a bad sign,” he said. “Don’t get discouraged. Don’t think that the seller is lazy or just dragging you along.
“Instead, consider that you might have them on the hook.” The study states buyers and sellers on eBay take hours longer to accept unattractive offers and to reject attractive offers, and that while they may have plans, “those plans involve noisy and lengthy evaluations of the received offers”.
Sellers on eBay, the study advises, “must estimate the size and timing of future offers, as well as their own evaluation of those offers, and evaluate whether the potential improvement in price is enough to justify the expected delay”. They should also account for the possibility that they may not get an acceptable offer for their item and could be stuck with it.