A grim study shows schools are on track to be spending the same amount of money per pupil in 2029 as they were in 2010 – as teaching unions said they desperately need investment
Schools are on track to be spending the same amount of money per pupil in 2029 as they were nearly two decades before, grim analysis shows.
The Department for Education is facing deep cuts as part of the Treasury’s spending review, as it is not “protected” like the NHS or defence funding. Teaching unions said they “desperately” need investment and said the IFS’ “analysis will make harrowing reading for school and college leaders”.
“Unprotected” budgets could fall by about 1% per year in real terms between 2025/26 and 2028/29, according to a study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
This would mean a more than £2billion cut – a 3% real-terms cut – in day-to-day school spending in England, which would be delivered by freezing spending per pupil in real terms during the period. The IFS said this would leave spending per pupil at a similar level to 2010 by 2029.
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In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the Government had planned for day-to-day departmental spending to grow by about 1.2% per year in real terms between 2025-29. This was already down from the previously planned 1.3%. But the IFS said its analysis actually found budgets would fall after taking into account the likely cost of existing commitments on defence, the NHS, overseas aid and childcare.
It also added that any recent education funding increases had been absorbed by rising costs, including for special educational needs and rising energy costs.
The IFS report comes after ministers accepted a 4% pay rise for teachers but refused to fully fund it. School unions warned headteachers could be forced to make cuts to make up the shortfall from their budgets.
The Spending Review will be set out on June 11.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said: “Schools simply don’t have any leeway for further cuts – and a lack of fresh investment is a cut. We desperately need to see new money and sustained investment from the Treasury.
“While public finances may be tight, it remains essential that children’s education and futures are prioritised, and it’s vital this is reflected in the three-year spending review in June.”
Julia Harnden, funding specialist at the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “This analysis will make harrowing reading for school and college leaders already faced with intense pressures on their budgets. If education spending is cut – however that is done – it will represent a new period of austerity which neither young people nor the country as a whole can afford.”
Josh Hillman, director of education at the Nuffield Foundation, which funded the IFS report, said: “If policymakers are serious about closing attainment gaps and building a more capable and inclusive workforce, they must prioritise strategic investment across the education system, not just in schools.”
Luke Sibieta, a Research Fellow at the IFS and co-author of the report, said: “The upcoming spending review will involve some difficult choices on education spending. There is pressure to protect school and college funding… Avoiding cuts to the education budget altogether would require deeper cuts to other public service spending, tax rises or extra borrowing.”
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