Exclusive:
Donald Trump’s administration appears to be intent on thawing relations with Moscow having offered favourable terms with Vladimir Putin to keep captured Ukrainian territory
Donald Trump’s increasingly clear pivot towards Vladimir Putin’s Russia will lead one of Washington’s leading rivals to fear Moscow might sell them out in power dealings.
Iranian leaders will view Mr Trump’s eagerness to thrash out a deal with Russia to end the war with Ukraine with “much trepidation” as it could upend the order of how the US handles its major rival. The US has long viewed Tehran as a hostile entity with capabilities to support terrorist cells across the Middle East to harass its allies in the region, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Should Russia be brought in from the cold, Iran would be concerned Moscow would sell them out in any deals with Washington DC. “Better Russian-American ties are viewed with much worry in Tehran and could lead to further pressures on it to fold to American demands,” historian and visiting fellow at Boston University Arash Azizi told The Mirror.
He added: “It is commonly believed that (Russian foreign affairs minister) Sergei Lavrov brought a message from America to Iran in his recent trip. Iran and the US have usually talked via regional mediators such as Oman and Qatar. During Trump’s first term, Japan’s Shinzo Abe also tried, bringing a message from Trump to Ayatollah Khamenei which he rejected.
“These mediators are usually US allies or friends, as is the case with some other suggested names such as Saudi Arabia. If the mediation is to be done by Russia, long a US adversary and closer to Iran, this will be a new step. But it will also lead to much trepidation as Iranians will rightly fear that Moscow will sell them in great power dealings with the US, which it has often done in the past.”
But Mr Azizi does not believe further isolating Iran is a key element of Mr Trump’s desire to strike a peace deal with Russia. He continued: “I don’t think Iran has been a very major concern for Trump’s new policies vis-a-vis Russia, although it’s certainly part of the picture. Obviously the Ukraine issue looms large as does Russia’s role as a great power so I think Iran is only a side show.
“This is also because Russia hasn’t done that much for Iran. Despite the significant military ties between the two countries, Russia barely sells its most advanced missile deference systems to Iran. Even when it okays such sales, Iran can’t afford that much of them.”
Mr Trump’s drive to thaw relations with Moscow at the expense of allies in NATO and the European Union is a now an obvious reality according to many analysts. Many European allies have wised up to this new reality with German election winner Fredrich Merz of the conservative CDU/CSU stating the continent needed to become more independent from the US.
“Trump’s pivot is real and calculated,” Geopolitical expert and former Tory MP Tobias Ellwood told The Mirror. “He now views the world as jungle – for any superpower secure terratorial rights and even do deals with competitors/adversaries – if its also self- serving.
“In Ukraine – where many leaders from across Europe assembled to mark the third anniversary – the penny has dropped. And a big question looms: Does Europe support a grubby Putin/Trump deal and risk more war further down the road as Putin re-habilitates is forces and pursues his mission to expand influence?
“Or does Europe lean in and go it alone to support Ukraine to victory. This is the new reality. Trump will be looking to Putin for another minerals deal. Anything to help bolster America’s economy.
“And part of that new reality is America partially / totally withdrawing from NATO – It might not happen. But we cant take the risk of saying it wont.
“Trump’s sole long term goal is to make America strong/resilient. To retreat from global exposure/chaos and to consolidate his near neighbourhood. Hence Panama, Greenland and 51st state. So our world is splintering.
“Sadly the strategy will fail. He still sees China as the big strategic threat. And finding an off-ramp that avoids an almighty clash in years to come is only possible if the West (America, Europe, Japan etc) are all on the same page. All this gives the UK an opportunity to lead in Europe – helped by a good increase in defence spending.”
Meanwhile Ukraine’s fears of being sold out by the US administration heightened after a furious bust-up between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian President and his delegation were shown the door at the White House after he was harangued by Trump, Vice President JD Vance and right-wing media during a visit aimed at striking a deal over mineral extraction.
The row left Ukraine without the long-term security guarantee it was seeking from the United States in the face of continued Russian attacks. And it mean the whole idea of a peace deal remains a distant dream. Zelensky, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and other European leaders will meet to discuss the way forward as the Ukrainian leader stopped off in the UK following his fractious US mission.