Exclusive:
Donald Trump has spoken confidently of ending the war in Ukraine in just one day but global affairs experts fear this could have devastating consequences for for Western Europe
Donald Trump’s plan to end war in 24 hours would be a “clear” victory for Vladimir Putin and a “death sentence” for Ukraine, warns a global affairs expert.
The US President elect repeatedly said during campaigning that he could settle the conflict in Ukraine in just one day. And Trump staffers have been widely reported as saying that his plan is to freeze the current front line in place and introduce an 800 mile buffer zone between the two countries.
While another crucial element to the alleged proposal would be an agreement that Ukraine would not join NATO for another 20 years. It has been said that this would save face for Putin, not least as it would more or less guarantee that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO in his lifetime. And it would likely mean that the US would heavily arm Ukraine so that Russia did not attempt to invade.
Tensions have significantly escalated in recent weeks after Joe Biden authorised Ukraine to use American-supplied long-range missiles to attack targets inside Russia. Storm Shadow missiles supplied to Ukraine by Britain were also reportedly fired into Russia last week.
And Britain could be hit by Putin’s deadly new Oreshnik hypersonic missile “in just 20 minutes”, it has been claimed, with the new Russian weapon fired at Dnipro last week.
But while the thought of a peace deal obviously is positive, Trump’s plan has been received with plenty of scepticism. Prof Anthony Glees, a security and intelligence expert at the University of Buckingham, told The Mirror why he believes this deal would be a disaster for Ukraine and Europe as Putin would press on his plans for a new ‘Soviet Union’.
“He lost some 700,000 men dead or seriously wounded and a quarter of his GDP is now being spent on defence. This is scarcely sustainable,” said Prof Glees. “Putin would love the war to be over and what Trump is suggesting is not only a clear victory for him but telling Ukraine to stay out of NATO for a generation is in effect denying Ukraine sovereignty.”
He also feels it would be a disaster for Ukraine and have a devastating impact for other NATO countries. “Trump’s deal would be a death sentence for Ukraine and for Zelensky, perhaps literally,” continued Prof Glees. “It would also be a death knell for NATO as we know it.
“It is complete folly to imagine that having taken some 20% of Ukrainian territory, Putin would stop there, not least because his stated aim has always been to reinstate the geopolitical entity of the former Soviet Union, his spiritual home and the state in which he learned his murderous skills. He has said all the post-1997 NATO members should relinquish their membership and become neutral.
“Giving Putin part of Ukraine in 2024 means giving him all of Ukraine the year after. And then Putin will begin to undermine and subvert Poland, the Baltic Republics, Hungary, Czechia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Lativa, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, West Macedonia, Finland and Sweden.
“Trump thinks he can trust Putin but Putin does not trust even his closest chums let alone the US president. It will be Putin who manipulates Trump, not the other way round. This would be a recipe for decades of future conflict with Russia, with Russia slicing off these NATO members as if NATO were a salami sausage.”
He also compared the situation to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain trying to avoid war with Nazi Germany in the 1930s. “The trouble is that wanting peace does not lead to peace, indeed the only way to keep the peace is to be prepared to fight those who don’t believe in it,” said Prof Glees.
“That’s not just Putin, that’s Kim Jong Un, that’s Xi. Trump will make a fatal error by thinking Putin will be satisfied with eastern Ukraine. It’s the same mistake Neville Chamberlain made over the Suedetenland in 1938 at the Munich Conference. Hitler took this as a sign of weakness and marched into the rest of Czechoslovakia within a few months. Reagan understood this. By re-arming NATO the Soviet Union was squeezed to its timely demise. Trump simply hasn’t learn this lesson.”
Meanwhile Professor John Strawson from the University of East London highlighted the “unpredictability” of Trump, but sees Ukraine having little choice other than to accept a peace deal proposed by the US which will be sugared by investment for redevelopment. He believes “all options are on the table” still in a deal between Ukraine and Russia.
“What we have learnt about Trump during his first term is that he is very unpredictable,” he told the Mirror. “His comments on solving the Russian-Ukraine war in 24 hours is very typical of a campaign promise. His ‘America First’ message to voters was all about not spending money on foreign wars but on spending it on Americans. As a result, he will lean on Zelensky to accept his view that object now is peace not the regaining Ukrainian territory.
“The Ukrainians will almost certainly be told that support for US financial and military support for the war will end. That harsh message will be sugared by talk of investment in re-building the 80% of the country still under Ukrainian control. Zelensky will not have a big choice as the European support is not only much smaller than the UK but also quite flaky.
“That is compounded by the fact that the Germany government has collapsed, and France has entered into a period of governmental uncertainty. In addition, European leaders know they will need to develop a way of dealing with the Trump administration and want cooperation over security issues in the Middle East and Asia and also want smooth trading relations. The final shape of a deal between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to predict but I would say all options are on the table. If Putin gets his way and effectively bars Ukrainian NATO membership, then he will take that as a major strategic win and sign of Western weakness.”
It comes as Trump has now announced Keith Kellogg, a highly decorated retired three-star general, to serve as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. He is one of the architects of the Trump campaign’s America First policy. Kellogg in April said that “bringing the Russia-Ukraine war to a close will require strong, America First leadership to deliver a peace deal and immediately end the hostilities between the two warring parties.”
