Russian forces continue to make slow and often meaningless advances on the frontline – but time and time again Ukrainian forces feint, roll out of the way, flank and then drive them back
Ukraine will be pinning its hopes on Russian forces over-extending themselves unsupported yet again, as it has done repeatedly throughout this war. Even in the months before the 2022 invasion Ukrainian troops in the Donbas trenches made no secret of their instructions as they awaited the Russian attack.
Outnumbered and under-resourced they knew they had to fight clever and had been told to defend but when it look like they were being overwhelmed, just to let Russian forces advance. The plan was simple, one soldier told me: “We will have to to let them in and then flank their positions and wipe them out.”
In many cases this has proved to be the case and yet again Russia appears to be over-extending, celebrating an early victory way too soon. Moscow’s troops are gaining ground in Pokrovsk, it is said, perhaps several hundred troops already inside the embattled city.
If they win this it could become a vital logistics hub for an advance much deeper into Ukraine – but so far Moscow’s so -called little victories have been at a snail’s pace in the grand scheme of the war. Riven with corruption and poor supply chains that have been smashed by Ukraine’s drones Russia has advanced into Pokrovsk but Ukraine’s troops have repeatedly shown on the battlefield that they can flank Russian forces and force them back.
Russia’s plan to replenish its forces in Ukraine has “stalled,” particularly in some of the country’s poorest and most remote regions, including the Republic of Sakha, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is so bad, with poor pay and conditions that many young and middle aged men prefer to disappear rather than sign up for military service.
According to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment recruitment centers in some areas are falling short by about 40% of Moscow’s established quotas. The shortfall underscores mounting discontent among residents and growing fatigue from the war, now entering its fourth year.
Ukraine has fought confidently throughout the war against an incompetent and bungling Russian military. And yet again last week UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has underlined unwavering British support for Kyiv’s defence against Russia’s war crime and atrocity-ridden invasion.
Ukraine has adapted repeatedly and consistently to the war’s changing conditions, switching brilliantly to high-tech drones when needed and developing its own missiles. Russian commanders inability to tell President Putin the truth, that their advances are often meaningless and often undone within days, will likely be his and their downfall.