The American military is slipping towards war with Iran in support of Israel, weakening the Tehran regime and sparking fears of a wave of revenge terror attacks across the west
Regardless of who you believe about Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions the seal is now broken and there is no going back for Israel. It is fully committed and will have to press on with its strikes, hoping to lure America into the fight, with its superior bunker-busting bomb power. But the escalating Iran crisis has serious implications for Israel’s western allies too and could boost the risk of terror attacks in countries like the UK.
As America’s junior partner and ally in the Middle East, Sunni Islamist jihadists and groups aligned with Shia Iran are a huge risk in Britain. British warplanes have in the past taken part in shooting down missiles sent to Israel by Tehran and that will not be forgotten by the Iranian regime. And as Shia Tehran has proved with its backing for Hamas in Gaza, a Sunni organisation, it is very capable of putting aside its religious differences to trigger violence.
And Iran has even hosted al-Qaeda leaders in hiding including, it is believed, Osama’s son Hamza, who Donald Trump announced had been killed in 2019. The Mirror revealed last year that in fact intelligence officers believe Hamza escaped that attempt to kill him and he now leads al-Qaeda, probably from Afghanistan.
Hezbollah and its Iranian islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sponsors have contacts in the UK and these shadowy organisations could launch revenge attacks.
The UK has long been regarded as a legitimate target for the region and as Iran begins to lose the conflict with Israel it will likely turn to other means.
And they don’t even have to radicalise anyone since the internet allows rogue states to seduce lone wolves and small criminal gangs into acting on their behalf for money.
Rogue states and terror networks are known increasingly to be tapping into criminal networks across the UK.
By putting distance between it, using a criminal gang or naive footsoldier, Iran could easily encourage the spilling of blood in the UK whilst remaining under the threshold for war.
The attacker may not even know whom he or she was working for and who they have been speaking to on the internet.
Every day and night our MI5 counter-terror officers operate, often in the shadows, trying to smash terror plots, forced to prioritise against an ever-more complex and increasing threat.
We in the UK take for granted the relative daily peace we enjoy and yet the threat level for a terror attack in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland remains ‘substantial.’
This means MI5 believe an attack is ‘likely,’ so not only can the threat of a terror attack is not be discounted – it is probably going to happen.
Targets could be Jewish sites, groups or religious centres in the UK or simply putting the general UK public in its crosshairs with deadly terror strikes.
The ongoing fanatical Iranian revolution which started in 1979 has taken a serious toll in recent years – its Hezbollah and Hamas proxies brought to their knees by Israel. It has also lost its huge presence and influence across Syria after the toppling of dictator Bashar al-Assad but it does have a militia foothold in Iraq.
For years Iran had steadily spread its influence across the Middle East, stretching across its “Shia Crescent” from Tehran, through Iraq and Syria, Lebanon and all the way to Israel’s doorstep. It has lost all of this in the space of just three years and now the regime is facing an uncertain future.
Iran could turn on the west like a wounded animal, launching a wave of terrorism reaching all the way to UK streets. However this current crisis is resolved there will be an increased risk to civilians in Britain and perhaps abroad as Iran seeks revenge.
And whilst Israel may have pushed back or destroyed Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions forever, the world may become a safer place. But not as safe as it was.