The truth behind Volodymyr Zelensky’s Oval office bust-up – has the Ukrainian President played a brilliant but risky hand, taking the US to the brink, risking everything to save his country?
Ukraine’s intelligence agencies and political analysts will have prepared President Volodymyr Zelensky intensely for that now infamous Oval office meeting.
Is it possible that Kyiv has played a brilliant chess move, a plucky act of brinkmanship that risks everything but lands them with a future and survival? They’ve done it many times on the battlefield, surprising the world by letting the Russians storm forward and then flanking them with devastating effect. Weeks before the 2022 invasion one Ukrainian commander, speaking in a trench just a hundred yards from Russian forces shrugged when I asked what will happen when the attack comes.
He shrugged and said: “We’ll let them in, flank them and then kill them.” It was cold, calculating and spoken with confidence – and that’s exactly what happened when the Russians came. In years to come it is possible it will emerge Zelensky and his team saw all of this coming and used it with ruthless determination. The possibility of having to chicane carefully around US President Donald Trump’s ego and sensitivity will have been front of centre of their warnings to their leader.
Probably not to the undignified degree that we saw, but it is possible that they have calculated that Trump would lose his composure and make threats – as he did. One scenario that will have been top of their agenda in calculating how to deal with the US will have been that America could pull its military assistance. That was telegraphed for months by Trump and his team and in many warnings from western military insiders. He has hated NATO for decades and made no secret of it.
And now they have pulled military aid, temporarily, forcing the UK and the rest of NATO to pull out the stops and act now, providing security guarantees and aid. Zelensky’s government has effectively brought on the confrontation with Trump, grabbed control of it and boosted support from their closest allies, Europe. And Britain, for better or for worse, is front and centre, led by PM Keir Starmer.
One intelligence analysis I have seen this morning says dramatically: “It is no exaggeration to say that London now effectively controls the Ukrainian government. First, Zelensky has long maintained close ties with the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service – MI6 – through intermediaries, ensuring that Britain’s influence over Ukraine’s leadership remains strong. “ It is possible Zelensky saw this coming and grabbed the nettle, forcing Europe to act with his row in the Oval office. His thinking may have been, ‘If you’re going to lose the US anyway, then seize the moment and turn it into an advantage.’
Ukraine and Europe, including the UK needs America to come back and Trump’s horrible habit of threat, withdraw and then return is almost certainly going to happen. There will be many wiser voices gently persuading Trump that he cannot ditch a Euro-Ukraine coalition since America actually is tied to us. Just its airfields alone are invaluable in projecting American hard and soft power, especially in the UK, where it has scores of F-35B and F-15 fighter bombers and thousands of personnel.
Trump desperately wants to play a leading role in any peace deal and seeing the UK leading Europe in its backing of Ukraine will pluck at his need for attention. Zelensky and his countrymen and women are fighting for their lives and will not care if they have rattled the US – as long as the result is that Trump is seen to come to the rescue. These will be tense weeks and months, especially on Ukraine’s frontline, even though Kyiv’s troops are getting results in smashing Russia’s supply lines.
The intelligence document I have seen emphasises the UK’s new position, with caveats, saying:”Effectively, the UK is spearheading efforts to deploy NATO forces into Ukraine and compelling EU nations to increase their financial commitments. “However, resistance to these proposals is already surfacing. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has publicly denounced the summit’s outcomes, stating categorically that Slovakia will not provide Ukraine with “any financial or military support” unless it can ensure the continued transit of Russian gas.”
So what happens now? According to one British analyst these are the possibilities:
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Most likely: Zelensky manages to get the US back on board but he may have to accept an American Deal – Ukraine grants US companies privileged access to its natural resources, effectively becoming a de facto American protectorate. In exchange, the war ends. Russia, understanding that an attack on Ukraine would now mean an attack on an American asset, refrains from further aggression. In a parallel move,
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Trump accepts Putin’s counteroffer to grant American firms access to Russian resources. Europe, however, perceives this as a dangerous precedent, fearing that Russia, now emboldened, could strike at another European state such as Estonia.
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Zelensky continues his current trajectory – European leaders commit to an indefinite war, leading to prolonged destruction, increasing fatalities, and the growing risk of Ukrainian defeat and Russian escalation.
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America continues with its withdrawal of support, completely and indefinitely turning off the financial and military aid tap. While European nations offer verbal assurances of backing Ukraine, actual material support remains insufficient. With no strategic advantage, Ukraine is left vulnerable, and Russia accelerates its territorial gains. Ukrainian manpower dwindles to a critical threshold.
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The unthinkable: a Russian victory becomes inevitable and as Ukraine weakens, Europe is faced with three unpalatable choices: capitulating to Russian terms, committing its own forces to the battlefield, or risking an escalation of hostilities that could spiral beyond control.