America’s joining Israel’s war on Iran has put back Tehran’s nuclewar ambitions for years but will further destabilise the Middle East and put the west under threat of terror attacks
This was the most anticipated and telegraphed joint US-Israeli attack ever – but its effect will echo for decades. Pentagon and Tel Aviv conflict-planners have been war-gaming plans to smash Iran’s nuclear ambitions since the 1990’s. Israel has over the years demolished Iraq and Syria’s nuclear sites, knowing they posed an existential threat to it.
But the attack on Iran was always held to be the most precarious, not least because of the country’s air defences. It has sent seismic shock waves into the geopolitical make-up of the region, perhaps even threatening the Iranian regime by demolishing its credibility. The war has already triggered huge numbers of people into fleeing Iran and could spark a further refugee crisis, which effects the entire region and the rest of the world.
America did this now because the Iranian regime is at its weakest and this was the moment to attack Iran’s nuclear ambitions with the least immediate risk. Tehran’s Lebanese Hezbollah, Gazan Hamas and Yemeni Houthi proxies have been severely crippled by war with Israel.
The threat from Bashar al-Assad’s regime is over and Syria’s new former jihadist leader shows no interest in aggression towards Israel. Hezbollah meanwhile is reported to have refused to step in on Iran’s behalf sooner because it fears being utterly wiped out by Israeli Defence Force.
This was the moment Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been waiting for since 30 years ago, perhaps ending Iran’s wishes for nuclear power. But there is now the inevitability of waves of revenge strikes against Israel and the possibility of attacks on US bases and embassies.
That will risk months of escalation throughout the Middle East, putting Arab countries in a difficult position, even though Iran has few friends apart from Iraq in the region. The Iranian regime, hated at home because of its years of theocratic oppression, is under threat because it has lost so much face and power in recent years it faces being toppled.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has seized his moment and, although blighted by his military’s actions in Gaza, his biggest action in his decades-long career has for now been a success. Persuading America to join the fight was no small act.
And its carrier strike forces and bombers will bot be leaving the region any time soon. Iran has since its 1979 Islamic revolution become the biggest rogue state exporter of terror, its tentacles stretching all the way to the UK with threats against its diaspora.
MI5 counter-terror officers work around the clock to counter growing threats from Iran’s sympathisers and terrorist footsoldiers across Europe. And this attack will boost their workload as Britain is seen by it and jihadist groups with some links to Tehran as America’s junior partner.
We cannot under-estimate Iranian nationalism as these attacks have galvanised it, perhaps saving the Ayatollah Ali Khameni for the time being. And there is a serious message for countries such as Russia and China from last night’s attacks – America has lost none of its appetite for war.
The west, with Britain possibly one of the most at risk, will inevitably suffer terrorist repercussions from the joint Israeli-American attack on Iran. America has broken the seal and used for the first time its Massive Ordnance Penetrator – the 14 ton bunker buster, the biggest non-nuclear bomb ever.
It may have stopped the most dangerous Middle Eastern regime from having nuclear weapons for now but the risk of terrorism has now gone through the roof. And US Donald Trump’s statement that ‘there may be peace..” just sounds hollow, simplistic and dumb.
History has proved many times that you cannot bomb peace into a country.