Eeva Ruuska, Americas Head of Intelligence at Riskline, has shared her thoughts on the arrival ofLa Niña and the impact it is likely to have on the certain destinations
A global weather event could bring storms, hot spells and downpours in 2025, potentially causing a spot of holiday bother.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon increases air temperatures , driving weather extremes like heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall. El Niño and La Niña , its opposite extreme, typically persist for 9-12 months, recurring every 2 to 7 years.
The 2023-24 El Niño was recognised by the World Meteorological Organization as one of the five strongest on record, with 2023 officially confirmed as the hottest year on record .
In 2024, El Niño, combined with human-driven climate change, contributed to record-breaking global temperatures. Heatwaves affected every continent, with regions such as the Mediterranean, Balkans, Japan and South Korea suffering casualties and public health crises. Over ten countries recorded temperatures surpassing 50°C (122°F) in more than one location, including the United States’ Death Valley.
The cooler phase of ENSO, known as La Niña , is expected to emerge and persist through January-March 2025, before a return to ENSO-neutral conditions. Although La Niña is associated with cool temperatures, more extreme weather events can be expected amid rising global temperatures .
Those looking to book a holiday in the next few months may want to keep the following weather trends in mind:
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Africa: Southern countries may see wetter conditions, while the Horn of Africa is likely to experience drier weather.
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Asia-Pacific: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Australia can expect heavier rainfall and increased flooding risks, whereas Central Asia and the Arabian Peninsula are likely to see reduced rainfall.
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The Americas: Northern Brazil, southern Central America, and parts of the Caribbean may experience wetter conditions, while the Pacific coast and Southern Cone of South America brace for droughts.
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Northern Hemisphere: Western Canada, the northern U.S., Japan and the Korean Peninsula are forecasted to face a colder winter.
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Arctic regions and southern Indian subcontinent: Above-average rainfall is expected.
La Niña and the ENSO-neutral phase are also associated with above-average levels of Atlantic Hurricane activity , exacerbated by record-warm ocean surface temperatures .
El Niño’s effects have created long-lasting challenges for travel, health and food security that will continue into 2025 and beyond. In Southern Africa, the situation is expected to worsen, with food shortages escalating as droughts and erratic weather patterns continue to strain agricultural production. The ongoing droughts in countries like Zambia and Zimbabwe have already led to reduced crop yields. An estimated 26 to 30 million people experienced acute food insecurity throughout the region.
A major drought in the Panama Canal disrupted global trade routes, causing delays in shipping schedules and logistics. Wildfires ravaged multiple regions, with devastating consequences. Chile’s Valparaíso region, western Canada and parts of the United States experienced severe fires, displacing thousands of people and worsening air quality.
In East Africa , millions were displaced by heavy rains. Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state faced significant travel and service interruptions due to floods, which affected more than 2 million people . Hurricanes Helene in the Southeast United States, Beryl and Rafael in the Caribbean, and typhoons in China, Taiwan, Japan and Southeast Asia further strained infrastructure and halted travel.
In terms of health , El Niño has exacerbated several risks, including the spread of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue, as warmer temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns create more favourable conditions for disease-carrying mosquitoes. Heat stress remains a significant concern, particularly for vulnerable populations in areas such as the Mediterranean, South Asia and parts of the Middle East, where record-breaking temperatures have already taken a toll. In addition, exposure to wildfire smoke, which has been particularly severe in regions like western Canada, the United States and Chile, poses ongoing health risks, leading to respiratory issues and increasing the demand for healthcare services.
Travel patterns will continue to be impacted by these disruptions, with health and safety concerns affecting certain regions, and travel operators adjusting to changing conditions.
Staying informed about weather events is crucial to protect your travel plans. Severe weather warnings and alerts display crucial and potentially life-saving information. These are notifications from the national meteorological authorities via different mediums, including Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), social media, news outlets, text messages, email, TV and radio. Sign up for government emergency alerts and use smartphone apps designed to provide real-time weather, emergency information and safety tips.