As the diplomacy machine buzzes with ceasefire talk, Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely side-step western demands by making Donald Trump a sinister offer ‘he cannot refuse’
Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling before his next move because he knows outright refusing to go along with the US ceasefire proposal would not be a good idea.
He will also want to see what comes out of PM Keir Starmer’s ‘coalition of the willing’ summit on Saturday to work out what exactly he may get away with.
It is possible that eventually there may come a scary moment when all sides reach the limit of their patience and somebody has to back down to avoid war – or a wider conflict breaks out. But it is increasingly likely Putin could side-step the issue by making a shrewd counter offer to appeal to US President Donald Trump’s ego, transactional nature and need to end the war.
One move might be to offer the US something in return for relaxing western demands for a security backstop in Ukraine once the ceasefire begins. This offer could be something that Trump can herald as a “win” for the US, such as a mineral deal of the kind being made with Ukraine, access to valuable Russian territory, perhaps even a joint venture or military exercise. All of this would seem outrageous but Putin knows Trump likes to look like he’s thinking outside of the box and that he’s a great deal maker.
It is entirely possible an offer has already been made and we may hear about it in the coming days. Anything is possible with Trump and Putin’s intelligence analysts will be working overtime assessing the next move and how to deal with the US President. One security source told me today: “Trump just wants a deal to end the war so he can brag that he sorted the war out as he promised – but he does not care about the long-term. “It would be fair to say he doesn’t even understand the long-term implications because that is not how his mind works.
“He thinks his so-called friendships with these despots are all that matters and he is taken in by flattery and false signs of respect. Giving way to any Russian demands will be detrimental long-term but Trump has made some very poor moves since he returned to the White House. Shocking the world at pace means we are constantly playing catch-up and trying to make sense of the latest tremor in world diplomacy. It means when a really big shock comes – such as a ceasefire deal that accedes to Putin – it will be less of a surprise and perhaps less impactful. I believe Putin may well offer Trump something. That would be the shrewd move by Putin to side-step the current peace negotiations.”