Iranian foreign minister Abbas Aranghchi warned the Donald Trump-ordered bombing campaign would “have everlasting consequences” amid fears Tehran will carry out a strong retaliation to avoid regime collapse
Donald Trump’s call to bomb key nuclear sites in Iran has sparked fears Tehran could retaliate – with mounting concerns that instability in the region could spark World War Three.
Over the weekend the US attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, including the deep underground Fordow facility, with President Trump claiming they had been “completely and fully obliterated.” The US President ordered the strikes – dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer – after Israel carried out attacks against the country’s nuclear, energy and military infrastructure last week.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran had been wanting to develop a nuclear weapon to threaten the Jewish-majority state, and said the strikes were to damage its nuclear programme. The International Atomic Energy Agency also found the Fordow site had enriched uranium to 83.7 per cent, which was close to the 90 per cent required to develop nuclear weapons.
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But Mr Netanyahu has warned of an imminent threat from Iran for decades, including him using a drawing of a bomb at a 2012 session at the United Nations to warn “by next spring” Iran would have moved onto the final stage of its enrichment programme. The Israeli leader has also called for regime change in Iran without explaining how this would take place and what the impacts of instability in the region could have.
The attacks have split the American electorate, who are grappling with President Trump’s move to go against his campaign promise of no more wars in the Middle East. They also have the possibility of splitting the US and its allies over what the next steps in the Middle East, with defence analyst Michael Clarke warning it could be the mark the “real end” of the Transatlantic relationship.
What are the risks facing the world following the Iran bombing campaign?
Cyber attacks ‘likely’
The US Department of Homeland Security warned on Sunday that cyber attacks against networks in the country were a distinct possibility. In an advisory shared on its national terrorism advisory system website, a Homeland Security expert said: “The ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States.
“Low-level cyber attacks against US networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against US networks.” The department also revealed that both hacktivists and the Iranian government have previously targeted “poorly secured” US networks and internet-connected devices as part of their cyber attacks in the past.
Iran out for revenge
Iranian government officials primarily blame the US over the death of its general Qasem Soleimani who was killed in a drone strike near Baghdad in January, 2020. US security officials warned Iran’s government held a long-standing commitment “to target” US government officials in retaliation for the attack.
In a statement shared over the weekend, a Homeland Security advisory warned: “The likelihood of violent extremists in the Homeland independently mobilizing to violence in response to the conflict would likely increase if Iranian leadership issued a religious ruling calling for retaliatory violence against targets in the Homeland.
“Multiple recent Homeland terrorist attacks have been motivated by anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiment, and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict could contribute to US-based individuals plotting additional attacks.”
End of Transatlantic relationship
Defence analyst Michael Clarke told The Mirror that the attacks on the nuclear facilities could spell the “real end” of the Transatlantic relationship. He added: “The politics of this will be impossible to smooth over and the lack of the common values that the Transatlantic Relationship has always been based on will from now on become very evident.
“This week’s NATO Summit will be the real breaking point – whatever the very short communique says.”
Iran’s warning
Following the American bombing of its nuclear sites, Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian warned: “The Americans must receive a response to their aggression.” His warning was joined by the country’s foreign minister Abbas Aragchi stating the strikes would have “everlasting consequences.”
While Iran’s capabilities to coordinate terror attacks across the Middle East has been severely dented after Israel carried out devastating strikes against its terror proxies Hamas, in Gaza, and Hezbollah, in southern Lebanon, there remains concerns its networks could inflict some significant damage on the US and its allies.
Middle East ‘regime change’
Mr Trump’s strikes have opened the door on further American involvement in the Middle East, just months after he vowed to put an end to the country’s militaristic involvement in the region. The Republican even made mention of an increasingly loathed phrase in the US, namely “regime change” which invokes doomed projects to establish flourishing democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq following the 9/11 attacks.
In a post shared to his social media platform TruthSocial, Mr Trump said: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!”
The post reflects a change in tone from Mr Trump, who previously slammed both Democrats and Republicans over their support for regime change rhetoric over Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan.
Military bases on red alert
British forces stationed across the Middle East are now on red alert for potential drone strikes from Iran, Defence Secretary John Healey warned. He added protection of UK Armed Forces was now at its “highest level” following the bombing campaign.
In a column in The Telegraph, he said: “The safety of UK personnel and bases is my top priority. Force protection is at its highest level, and we deployed additional jets this week.”
Strait closure risks ‘economic suicide’
Iran has warned it could shut down a vital Middle East oil “choke point” that could send oil prices spiking across the globe. The US has warned any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be a “terrible mistake.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Fox News: “I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil.
“If they do that, it will be another terrible mistake. It’s economic suicide for them if they do it. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours.”