Meteorologist Jim Dale has offered his thoughts on the tsunami issues that have been issued across parts of the world today, following an earthquake of a magnitude comparable to those that wreaked devastation in 2004 and 2011
An expert has shared their thoughts as alarming tsunami warnings are issued in various parts of the world, with ferocious waves having already crashed against the shores of Russia, Hawaii, California, and Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido.
Senior meteorologist Jim Dale, who founded meteorological operator British Weather Services, has explained why the 8.8-magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami waves have sparked such concern, while issuing a serious warning to anyone who finds themselves caught up in this sort of dangerous situation.
Speaking with the Mirror, Jim noted that “at this moment in time we’re in the sort of waiting period to see exactly what impacts unfold”, as fears over potential casualties circulate. He revealed: “Because the playground is so big, the Northern Pacific, we’ve got to wait and see how that affects.”
This monster quake is understood to be the biggest since March 2011, when a magnitude-9.0 shake struck 250 miles off the northeastern coast of Honshu, the largest island in Japan. Notably, this earthquake occurred just 20 miles below the Pacific Ocean’s surface, a relatively shallow depth.
This factor, when combined with the high magnitude, led to a catastrophic tsunami. Some 15,894 people died, while a further 26,152 individuals were injured. Amid the widespread destruction, Japan saw serious damage inflicted on the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, leading to hazardous meltdowns. To this day, this long-evacuated area remains a no-go zone.
Comparisons have also been made with the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami, a tragedy whereby a 9.2–9.3 earthquake triggered a nightmarish tsunami with waves as high as 30 m (100 ft). Also known as the Asian Tsunami, this event decimated communities along the coasts of Indonesia, India, and Thailand. It remains the deadliest event of the 21st century so far, claiming more than 230,000 lives.
Footage of fierce waves striking shorelines today will, no doubt, bring back painful memories for many. However, Jim has cautioned against drawing comparisons with the 2011 and 2004 tragedies, as the current event continues to unfold. While he feels it’s “too soon” to make any predictions, Jim is cautiously optimistic that we won’t see the sort of devastation that emerged in 2004.
Jim told us: “It’s obviously too soon, but my instant reaction, given we’re now eight hours past the actual earthquake itself, the premier one, I would have expected if we’re going to see that kind of destruction, that we would have seen some of that already, to be frank with you. Particularly in and around where the earthquake has been, the Kamchatka Peninsula.
“That’s where you would expect it to be; that’s where it is. It’s a shallow earthquake, apparently, so some of those can be quite devastating in terms of producing the biggest types of waves.
“So, because this part of the world is fairly remote-ish, and then you’ve got Alaska on the other side, and then the massive ocean, and then Hawaii, and then the west coast of America. You kind of have to wait, but I do not think at this stage that we’re in the same category as 2004. We’re yet to see, but I don’t think so.”
In this case, Jim has emphasised that this particular quake has “nothing to do with climate change”, and is a “geological not meteorological event”. Furthermore, even though this earthquake is indeed of a similar size to these two harrowing quakes, scale isn’t the only factor that affects the overall impact, and the positioning of the plates can be just as important.
Jim said: “These things will always have their own uniqueness, wherever the adeptonic place will be, it depends where it is, it depends how deep it is, how shallow it is, it depends what the landmass next door to it is, etc.
“So there are lots of different components in every earthquake that happens, but essentially, if we’re trying to compare, I don’t think we can properly compare; we’ve got to bide time. You know, because it still might unfold in days to come if there are further shocks, etc, etc.
“But for now, we’ve got a look at particularly unpopulated areas, by which I mean more remote areas that might have been on social media, that may have seen tremendous damage, we’ll see. But for the likes of Japan, Hawaii, the west coast of America, I doubt that we’ll be seeing the kind of devastation that we saw in 2004, for example.”
With this in mind, Jim is cautious about making any predictions about the number of fatalities, but has noted that, had this quake happened in a more densely populated area, then we could have been looking at “countless hundreds of thousands [of deaths] without a shadow of a doubt.”
He went on: “If it happens in a remote area, this being one of them, it’s probably arguably got less chance of doing fatality damage than if it happened right next to a big urban area, such as Tokyo, for example.”
Jim noted that “lessons have been learned” in the years since previous weather events devastated communities, with authorities reacting quickly to the situation as it continues to unfold, with this sort of preparation undoubtedly saving lives.
According to Jim: “The emergency warnings that go out do save lives. Make that absolutely clear. Places like Japan are a good example of a place that is well equipped to deal with this kind of event, because they’ve got the backup. They’re a first-world country, obviously, and they’ve got the backup of emergency shelters, evacuation routes. They know what to do; they’re very well trained.”
However, Jim, who teaches seminars on how to survive earthquakes and tsunamis, has also cautioned that survival can ultimately come down to individual actions and decisions made with mere seconds to spare. This, of course, includes knowing what not to do should disaster strike. As a regular traveller to earthquake and tsunami hotspots, he’s previously been surprised by how little some seminar attendees know.
Jim, who co-wrote the book Surviving Extreme Weather, urged: “If individuals know what to do beyond the local authorities, then it’s a bit like, if a tsunami happened on a beach, you see the sea going back out again. You don’t go and pick shells, you don’t take photographs for social media, you get the hell out of there as fast as you can. Aim for higher ground, higher buildings.”
According to Jim, those who find themselves in a high-rise building in the event of an earthquake shouldn’t risk getting out of there via the stairs or lift, and should instead take shelter under their desk, taking precautions to protect their head. However, those in low rise buildings should aim to get outside.
Jim warned: “If it’s just a normal two-story building, you’d want to get out, you know, get out the front door and get into the open space away from buildings. Why? Because the buildings falling are the things that are going to get you in the end”.
Talking specifically about earthquakes, Jim added: “If you get yourself into an open space where nothing can fall on you, trees, buildings, you’re virtually safe. The chances of the ground opening up and swallowing you up are very, very small. The chance of a building falling on you is far higher.”
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