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US President Joe Biden’s pause on military aid to Israel could either increase Washington’s influence over the Gaza war or create a deep rift between America and one of its oldest allies, an expert says
US President Joe Biden’s decision to withhold bombs from Israel serves as the most powerful message to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yet as Washington’s patience appears to be waning, says a foreign policy expert.
The temporary withholding of 2,000-pound bombs comes after Netanyahu and his war cabinet have continually signalled that an assault on Rafah, which is currently harbouring about one million displaced Palestinians, is imminent despite objections from the US.
Dr Andrew Payne, Lecturer in Foreign Policy and Security at City, University of London, said the move is less about moulding the war to Washington’s liking and more about sending a message to the Israeli government. He cited how the Biden administration decided to block the transport of bombs.
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This is no coincidence as those types of munitions are likely to cause widespread destruction and scores of fatalities, which would add to the all ready high Gaza death toll of 34,000, according to Andrew. The lecturer also pointed to the inhumanely close quarters of the city.
“In choosing which weapons to withhold, the administration did select a range of munitions that it feared could cause particularly intense destruction in an urban environment like Rafah,” he said.
But more importantly, the decision serves as a minor slap on the wrist to Israel, demonstrating the US will take the necessary steps in order to make its opinions heard regarding the Israel-Hamas war. Andrew asserted Netanyahu would likely halt Israel’s aggression to preserve its longstanding relationship with the US.
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“A lack of military capabilities is unlikely to be the reason why Prime Minister Netanyahu considers calling off an invasion he has repeatedly promised,” he said.
He added: “Instead, the Biden administration hopes that pausing the delivery of arms will serve as the most powerful signal yet that its patience is wearing thin with Netanyahu’s perceived indifference to U.S. pressure on him to forego an operation that it fears will cause widespread civilian casualties.
The pause of weapon deliveries, which garnered criticism from Republicans who accused President Biden of interfering in another state’s war, is the farthest Washington has gone to ensure no IDF troops invade Rafah. Andrew said the plan was designed to keep ceasefire talks alive, which have seen little progress in recent weeks as Hamas leaders have changed their demands with no intentions of backing down.
Several past US presidents have withheld foreign aid to Israel as means to influence the state’s actions with the move continually proving to be somewhat effective. After all, Andrew said, Israel has received more military aid from the US than another other country since WWII.
“Biden is not the first president to use that supply of arms and other security assistance as a chip to try to influence the behaviour of the Israeli government – Ronald Reagan took similar steps during the 1980s to signal his unhappiness with Israel’s intervention in Lebanon. But it is the most dramatic step in recent years. And it could mark a turning point in the broader U.S. commitment to Israeli security that Biden still insists is ‘ironclad.'”
How Israel will respond to this action remains to be seen. The pause could prompt Jerusalem to show more restraint and control in its military operations or create a rift in “a decades-long diplomatic relationship.”
“Time will tell. The ball is now very much in Netanyahu’s court, but Biden is running out of cards to play,” Andrew said. The political expert said the situation for President Biden is complicated as the war in Gaza has become a central theme during his presidency and will likely be a factor in the upcoming election.
Democrats stopped short of praising the Biden administration, saying the move should have come much earlier given the tens of thousands of Palestinians that have perished throughout the seven-month conflict.
