The Prime Minister will seek to guide his government through the migrant hotel crisis, stave off the threat of Reform, and then address the small matter of the Budget
Keir Starmer has an extensive to-do list waiting for him as Parliament returns from the Summer recess today.
The Prime Minister could barely even enjoy a holiday, having to interrupt a family trip to Scotland for crunch talks on Ukraine in Washington DC.
He now returns to a Parliament rife with issues to get stuck into, both domestic and international.
Mr Starmer will seek to guide the government through the migrant hotel crisis, stave off Reform, and then address the small matter of the Budget.
For their part, MPs will arrive in Westminster brimming with their own suggestions for a range of issues, and will be fighting desperately both publicly and behind the scenes to get them included in announcements at the party conferences.
Here we take a look at the challenges and flashpoints for Mr Starmer as he returns from the Easter break.
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1. The Budget
Labour are well aware that strong economic leadership was what helped put Mr Starmer in Downing Street, with the nation fed up after years of Tory rule and the disaster of Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
With the Chancellor Rachel Reeves expected to deliver the Budget sometime in November, ministers will be working intensely behind the scenes to fight for their departments, and find a plan that delivers for hard-working people.
Ms Reeves has a tightrope to walk due to her fiscal rules, so changes to taxation are to be expected, though the party has pledged this will not be on income tax, national insurance or VAT.
One measure that is being considered is a tax increase on Landlords under plans being considered to target “unearned income”.
The Budget is likely to focus on productivity, to help the public get more from their pay packet, after years of stagnation. Ms Reeves is expected to look at infrastructure, cutting red tape, and looking at boosts to wages.
2. Hotels
The issue of asylum hotels has dominated the recess, with protests across the UK, and a High Court battle.
Since last Tuesday’s initial decision to end the use in Epping, several town halls have indicated they may mount their own legal challenges to asylum hotels in their areas.
Judges ruling on Friday that forcing an asylum hotel to close in Epping risks more protests is therefore important for the government.
Mr Starmer has vowed to close all asylum hotels by 2029, but the Home Office says the process must be carefully managed. Convincing voters why it can’t be immediate will be important for the government, with the Tories likely to raise the issue in the return to PMQs.
Kemi Badenoch ’s party has spent much of the recess questioning the independent judiciary, and this will likely continue when parliament returns.
3. Small boats
The PM will return with criticism of the Government’s handling of the small boats crisis ringing in his ears, just as it has for all the recent leaders.
However, Home Office figures show with a final tally of 3,567 arrivals, August has seen the lowest total for people crossing the Channel in that month since 2021. In what is usually one of the busiest periods of the year, it has also seen the lowest number of small boats making the crossing since August 2019.
Home Office sources say that – as always – weather conditions have played the biggest part in dictating overall crossing numbers this August, although they point out that the number of days when crossings took place this month (fourteen) is identical to last year’s total.
They also point to the impact of the joint operations that the National Crime Agency has carried out with European counterparts in recent weeks to squeeze the supplies of boats and engines reaching the French coast.
While the government accepts there is more to do, there are hopes through the introduction of the new UK-France returns deal, the progress will start to be felt by voters.
4. Reform
Tackling Reform is the main political battle for both Labour and the Tories as parliament returns.
Nigel Farage’s party lead in the polls, despite a series of controversies and a policy platform full of U-turns.
Labour is still figuring out how to respond to Reform, a party that has said it would happily strike deals with the Taliban, and vowed to deport women and children.
Mr Starmer has taken a hardline stance on immigration, but this has irritated some in his own party, who are uneasy about the language around immigration.
Expect more attacks on Reform, highlighting how they’re not really on the side of the workers.
5. Education
Education will be a key theme in the first weeks of MPs return, with the government talking up their plans to give children the best possible start to life.
This includes a crackdown on behaviour and attempts to boost attendance at the start of school term. Ministers announced on Sunday Attendance and Behaviour Hubs across 800 schools.
6. Palestine recognition at the UN and the crisis in Gaza
Britain is one of several countries, along with France, Canada, Australia, and Malta that all say they are preparing to recognize a state of Palestine at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in September.
They would join another 147 UN countries that already do so. Though the move is largely symbolic, there is hope it can force the Israeli government and Hamas into a ceasefire.
In a statement in June, Mr Starmer said the Palestinian people have “endured terrible suffering” with “catastrophic failure of aid”. He added: “We see starving babies, children too weak to stand, images that will stay with us for a lifetime.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy was applauded at the UN General Assembly as he announced the move after saying Israel’s actions had “horrified the world”.
The recognition of Palestine is a start, but there is still no sign of the conflict ending.
7. Trump and Ukraine
The Ukraine war has been a huge priority in the PM’s in-tray since he came to power – and only got more complicated since Donald Trump returned to the White House. Mr Starmer has been left having to keep up with the unpredictable nature of Mr Trump.
The US President has rolled out the red carpet for the dictator Vladimir Putin, and suggested Ukraine, a country that was invaded, shared blame for the conflict.
Mr Starmer will continue his charm offensive with Trump, beginning with a state visit, and hope that this convinces him not to push Ukraine into giving up land.
The PM has consistently said peace in Ukraine cannot be assured without US backing. Trump’s visit, which is set to take place from 17 to 19 September, will be a chance to keep him on side.
8. Labour conference
Aside from the Budget, Labour conference may be the most important event of the year for Mr Starmer.
It represents a chance for the PM to re-outline his vision for Britain, and show how the good work done so far, through measures such as the new deal for working people, and investments from GB Energy, will soon start to be felt by the public.
Conference also offers the PM time to reassure Labour members and MPs unsure about the party’s direction that there still is a long-term plan, and the change people voted for after decades of Tory austerity is around the corner.
It could also be a chance, if rumours are believed, for speeches from new members of the cabinet, if a reshuffle goes ahead.
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