The polling guru said the public turned on the Conservatives over partygate and Liz Truss’s mini-budget, and that Kemi Badenoch had been unable to stop support collapsing
Sir John Curtice has claimed the public don’t know who Kemi Badenoch is and that the Tories have a reputation of not delivering on immigration.
The polling guru said the public turned on the Conservatives over Partygate and Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget, and that Ms Badenoch had been unable to stop their support collapsing. Speaking to the Mirror ahead of the Tory party conference in Manchester, Sir John also questioned whether another leader could do better, asking “who passes the charisma test”.
His insights come just a week after a YouGov MRP poll predicted the Tories to win just 45 seats at the next general election.
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He said: “The Tories are now barely more popular with those that voted Brexit than they are with the people who voted Remain, despite being the party that delivered Brexit.
“Has Badenoch been able to deal with the challenge posed by Farage and Reform? No. Has she managed to make an impression on the public? No. Has she basically had to change tact, yes, because originally her idea was ‘we’re stuffed’, we have to wait people to forget the last parliament, we’ll spend a couple of years having a consultation thinking up some policy, then only begin to pop up again in the second half of the parliament, by which stage we hope the government is unpopular.
“In practise, she has discovered to her right is Reform, which is just eating into the party. We can debate how Labour and the Liberal Democrats are dealing with Reform, but it’s very difficult for the Tories to stand up and say we believe in a diverse country, and we think Nigel Farage is a very nasty man.”
Sir John suggested Ms Badneoch’s conference speech was a chance to introduce herself to the public, but stressed any comeback in the May elections next year would be “very difficult”.
He said: “The underlying thing with her numbers is not that she’s not popular, it’s not that nobody knows who she is. There’s always been this remarkable mismatch between her long-standing levels of popularity among Conservative activists, and her low visibility among the wider public. She wasn’t that visible as a minister, she’s not that visible as a leader of her position.”
Despite attempts to compete with Reform on immigration, Sir John also said it would be tough given the Tory record.
He explained: “It’s very difficult to adopt a position that’s harder than Reform, and then the question is who do you trust to deliver? And the Tories problem is they have the reputation of not having delivered on the issue”.
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