‘Labour MPs’ loyalty to Keir Starmer could be tested if Commons votes on WASPI women’

The Mirror’s Jason Beattie looks back at Keir Starmer’s first six months in Downing Street – and to the possible pitfalls the PM faces in the New Year

“Things will get worse before they get better.” This was the view of a seasoned Labour MP when asked how he viewed his party’s prospects for the coming year.

Many of his colleagues are wondering how much worse it can get. The first six months of Keir Starmer’s premiership have been politely described as “bumpy”. Others have used more colourful language to describe the series of missteps and own goals.

Even the most loyal of Labour MPs question whether it was wise to anger millions of pensioners by removing their winter fuel payments. Rachel Reeves then lost even more friends by raising employers’ national insurance, making farmers pay inheritance tax and refusing to compensate the WASPI women.

There has been the freebies row, the departure of the PM’s chief of staff Sue Gray, the removal of Transport Secretary Louise Haigh, Rosie Duffield’s resignation and the revolt over the two-child benefit cap.

After such a shaky start it is perhaps not a surprise that Mr Starmer’s personal ratings have nosedived. The Prime Minister claimed before Christmas he would not have done anything differently since taking power.

But behind this bravado there is a recognition in Downing Street that more needs to be done in the coming year to steady the ship, cut out the self-enforced errors and communicate better what the government is doing. Those close to Mr Starmer say that the “never hear Keir” jibe – a reflection of the amount of overseas travel he has done – has started to rankle and he will be more focused on domestic issues this year.

“The timing of the different summits meant Keir has not been able to do the bread and butter domestic politics. In the New Year he will be visiting normal people in normal places,” one adviser told the Mirror.

Downing Street is also planning two big set pieces for this January, on the NHS and on artificial intelligence. “The thing Keir is most animated about in meetings is reform and how you use technology and AI to push that along,” said a No 10 insider.

Those close to the centre of power say that everything now rests on the Prime Minister’s ability to change the way public services are delivered. At the heart of the problem is the tough financial situation.

At a Cabinet away day before Christmas (it was actually held in Whitehall rather than a country house) the Chief Secretary to Treasury, Darren Jones, gave a presentation in which he set out hard choices facing the government ahead of this year’s spending review. He told his colleagues that raising more taxes would be politically damaging but they could not borrow more without upsetting the markets. The only answer was to reform.

This was not a message everyone round the table wanted to hear. Cabinet ministers who endured years of opposition had not fought and won the election so they could continue the austerity of the Tory years. But many of them now face having to make departmental cuts of as much as five per cent.

They are unlikely to get a sympathetic ear from Downing Street. “Wes (Streeting) gets it but it’s not clear everyone gets it in the same way,” said one senior Labour adviser. He added: “There are some Secretaries of State who say they are going to reform but it’s not clear whether they are going to.”

The message was clear: Cabinet ministers who fail to drive through change are unlikely to survive the first major reshuffle. Others in Government fret that the Prime Minister has yet to spell out how he intends to improve public services. They drew a comparison with the Tony Blair government where reform was linked to choice: they brought in academy schools to give parents an alternative if they were dissatisfied with their local school and allowed patients to shop around for health.

“I’m not sure Keir has worked out what his answer is yet but there is a lot of thinking going in that area,” one Labour official said.

It has also taken Mr Starmer time to find his feet in Downing Street. Those close to the Prime Minister say the operation is running more smoothly since the departure of Sue Gray and the promotion of Morgan McSweeney as his chief of staff. Veterans of the Tony Blair era such as Jonathan Powell and Liz Lloyd have been brought in to help improve delivery. Former Health Secretary Alan Milburn has joined the Department of Health and Social Care’s board to help Mr Streeting deliver his reforms.

There is also an acknowledgement in No 10 that Mr Starmer needs to spend more time on party management. Winning a large majority can be a curse as well as a blessing. With only a limited number of ministerial jobs to go round backbenchers, now the jubilation of winning an election has started to wear off, could soon become frustrated and restless.

So far the parliamentary party has been willing to do No 10’s bidding – apart from small rebellion over the two-child benefit cap – but that could be tested if Labour, as currently expected, receives a drubbing in May’s local elections. The loyalty of MPs could also be tested if there is a Commons vote on the refusal to compensate the WASPI women.

MPs, like the public, want some cause for hope. Many fear the Government has overplayed the misery and underplayed its achievements such as renationalising the railways, increasing the minimum wage and improving workers’ rights.

Downing Street insists that Mr Starmer understands the impatience of the public that it is taking time to turn things around. “The reason Keir came up with the missions is so we don’t get caught up in the day-to-day and he’s been proved right. The milestones are there because we need to show in four years time there has been tangible change,” said a Labour source.

Others argue that he needs to provide evidence that the Government is making a difference in 2025, not 2028.