The results of the local elections and mayoral battles could spell doom for the PM and will show whether Keir Starmer and Labour are on course for a general election landslide
Today’s round of local polls are make or break for Rishi Sunak.
The results could spell doom for the PM and will show whether Keir Starmer and Labour are on course for a general election landslide. Tory plotters may try to oust Mr Sunak if the party suffers big defeats.
Voting is open between 7am and 10pm but under new controversial rules you must show ID at the polling station in order to vote. These include a driving licence, passport, older or disabled person’s bus pass, freedom pass and a proof of age PASS. Here are the key battlegrounds and a guide to what could happen.
Council elections
More than 2,600 councils seats are up for grabs in 107 local authorities. These wards were last contested in 2021 when Boris Johnson benefited from the “vaccine bounce”.
The Conservatives gained 235 seats and, on a terrible night for Keir Starmer, Labour lost 327. This time around the Tories are braced to lose as many as 400 seats. Labour will want to win back Hartlepool and make gains in places along the Thames estuary such as Thurrock and Basildon.
A key test for Mr Starmer will be if Labour does well in Dudley, where all the council seats are in play and Harlow – both places which voted Labour at the height of Tony Blair ’s popularity. A good night for Labour could be slightly tarnished by a strong showing for the Greens, raising concerns some voters want more radical policies from Mr Starmer.
There are also elections for 37 police and crime commissioners. If Labour does well it will confirm it has usurped the Conservatives as the party of law and order.
Blackpool by-election
This is the only Westminster seat being contested and, as such, offers the best guide to the outcome of the general election.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Tory Scott Benton who was accused of lobbying ministers on behalf of gambling organisations. Labour is confident of overturning the Tories’ 3,690 majority.
That will give the best indication of how Keir Starmer could fare in a national poll. Conservatives will anxiously watch the share of votes the hard-right Reform Party get. If it does well it will spark fears Reform could eat into Tory vote in dozens of seats.
Metro Mayors
Elections are taking place for 10 metro mayors across England as well as the London mayoralty. Labour’s Andy Burnham is expected to be re-elected comfortably in Greater Manchester as is Steve Rotheram in the Liverpool City Region. Labour should also keep West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, the West of England, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.
In London Sadiq Khan, who is seeking to win a third term, is up against the Tory Susan Hill. Although Khan is ahead in the polls the Conservatives have changed the system from the transferable vote, which saw Labour benefit from second preferences of Lib Dem and Green voters, into a first-past-the-post race. Labour fears Hill could sneak in if Lib Dem and Green voters don’t back him.
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Keir Starmer faces a possible headache in the North East where the Labour candidate Kim McGuinness is neck and neck with the former Labour mayor for North of the Tyne, Jamie Driscoll. The left-winger is standing as an independent after being blocked by Labour HQ.
The most important battles are in the West Midlands and Tees Valley. West Midlands is on a knife-edge with Labour’s Richard Parker hoping to oust Tory Andy Street. Labour faces a tougher task in Tees Valley which Tory Ben Houchen held at the last election in 2021 with 72.8% of the vote. Taking either would cap an exceptional night for Starmer.
What’s a good night for Keir Starmer?
Labour will want to do well in the Blackpool South by-election to show it is on course to form the next government. The party will also want to pick up council seats in places such as Hastings in East Sussex, Redditch, Worcs and Harlow, Essex – all key battlegrounds for the general election.
Party strategists will be keeping an eye on how well the Greens do in places such as Bristol. A strong showing by the Greens there would raise fears that in a general election they could snatch Bristol Central, a new seat for 2024 in a patch currently held by Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire. Starmer will also want to see off independent left-winger Jamie Driscoll in the North East.
A Driscoll win would pressure Starmer to move Labour left. Winning the West Midlands metro mayor prize from the Tories would make it a good night for Labour. Winning Tees Valley from them would make it an outstanding night.
What’s a good night for Rishi Sunak?
The Tories are braced for a hammering in the local elections and are resigned to losing the Blackpool South by-election. Few in the party think Susan Hall has a chance in London and there are even fears they could lose the mayoral race in Rishi Sunak’s backyard of York and North Yorkshire.
Conservative hopes are resting on Andy Street winning in the West Midlands and Lord Houchen in Tees Valley. If so Sunak will be able to seize on the victories as evidence the Tories are still in the race for the general election and voters have not completely turned their backs. However, critics will point out Street has distanced himself from Sunak and his election literature barely mentions the fact he is Conservative.
Houchen, like Street, is basing his campaign on his local record. Both candidates have enlisted Boris Johnson to keep voters on board. So if they do win, it could be the former PM could gets the credit, not Sunak.
What’s a bad night for Rishi Sunak?
The nightmare scenario for the PM is losing around 400 council seats, Blackpool South, London and the West Midlands. Even if Houchen holds Tees Valley, it may not be enough to save Sunak.
A pasting across the map will pile pressure on him to bring forward the general election. He may even choose to go to the country as means of pre-empting a possible leadership challenge.
Sunak will be fearing an orchestrated attempt to get rid of him as MPs believe one more roll of the dice could save them from obliteration, even if it means a fifth Tory leader in as many years. His fate could be decided if 52 MPs submit letters calling for a vote of no-confidence.
Ministers Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps have denied they are positioning for a leadership contest but are understood to have teams ready. There could also be a challenge from the right – Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, Kemi Badenoch or Suella Braverman.
What could save Sunak is the lack of agreement over who could replace him, and doubts over whether the public would stomach a new leader. But if the results go as badly as feared, Sunak could face an incredibly difficult few days.