The Mirror’s Defence and Security Editor Chris Hughes says Iran has warned Israel an attack on its nuclear installations will be a red line – but it can’t be ruled out
Everybody in Israel is talking about its spectacular intelligence coups against Iran’s attempts to wage proxy war against it.
It is now obvious that in very high places deep inside Tehran’s military and intelligence machine there are disastrous leaks. The disappearance of Iran’s Quds force commander Esmail Qaani may mean he has been seized as a suspected mole.
If that is the case then he may have been the most senior inside man Israel has penetrating the Tehran security machine. And if this is true then it is one of the biggest counter-intelligence blunders of modern Iran’s history – as far as we know.
The death of Hassan Nasrallah and his successor Hashem Sadieddine a week later in bunker blasts in Beirut reveal how wide open Israel has blown Hezbollah’s security. These deaths, the James Bond-style walkie talkie and pager blasts in Lebanon indicate years of sophisticated penetration of Tehran’s proxy.
Even the former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, blown up in his guest apartment whilst a guest of the regime. Of course people still wonder how on earth Israeli intelligence failed so spectacularly to notice Hamas gearing up for the October 7 attacks.
All of this will feed into Israel’s calculations on how to respond to Iran’s 200-strong missile attack more than week ago, albeit a largely unsuccessful one. Iran has warned Israel an attack on its nuclear installations will be a red line – but Israel may assess that with Hezbollah and other proxies so wounded, Iran is weakened.
And if what we are hearing about a mole inside Iran being seized, Israel may take years to build up as big an intelligence trove as it has displayed recently. Plus – any other insiders may have to become inactive to avoid detections as there is now massive investigation into who has been talking to Israel.
It is hard to imagine that for a hardliner such Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this will not be the perfect opportunity to degrade Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The US has warned against such a move, in the belief that it will explode the Middle East into a much wider and devastating conflict.
But Israel has to do something and that is now imminent many believe. The target could include Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and this would be a very strategically beneficial move, taking pressure of Israel, which is fighting seven fronts.
Gas and other power installations being hit would be a big move but it will also hit the civilian population – so that may not be favourable. And of course there is taking out the Iranian leadership which, unless overwhelmingly decisive as in its entire leadership, may lead the Middle East into a major war.
In Israel the tension is now at fever pitch as everyone is waiting for Netanyahu’s next move. But the crucial element of this bloody and disastrous chess game for civilians will be Iran’s response.
