England have gone into their final group game at Euro 2024 knowing they can still finish first, second or third in their group – setting up an array of potential last-16 opponents
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England knew they were through to the knockout stages of Euro 2024 before taking to the field against Slovenia, but there is still the small matter of finding out who they will play next.
In addition to the top two teams in each group, the four best third-placed finishers will make it into the round of 16. England have four points from their first two games, and the third-placed finishers in groups A and B have finished on three and two points respectively.
Three points against Slovenia would ensure England top the group after beating Serbia and drawing with Denmark. However, they are still at risk of finishing second or third, and the finishing position could be a big factor in how far Gareth Southgate’s team progress.
Back at Euro 2020, the Three Lions were handed a meeting with Germany after topping their group with seven points. They went all the way to the final on that occasion, beating Germany, Ukraine and Denmark on the way before losing to Italy in the final.
What about this year, though? Here, Mirror Football has looked at all the permutations for Gareth Southgate’s men – including a potential repeat of their last-16 game in the last edition of the tournament.
If England finish first
If England finish top of the group, the situation is clear. Their round of 16 game won’t be until Sunday, with Southgate’s squad returning to Gelsenkirchen – where they beat Serbia in the first group game.
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The opposition would be a third-place finisher, though which one remains to be seen. Only the four third-placed teams with the best records will make it through, and we won’t know the identity of those teams until after Wednesday’s final group games.
Based on the standings after two rounds of games, Group D’s Austria and Group E’s Slovakia were the two teams set to progress in third. A lot can change, though, with Austria’s victory over The Netherlands meaning the latter have ended up finishing third in that group.
We can’t rule out a team from Group F making it through, either. While Portugal are through as group winners, all of Turkey, Georgia and the Czech Republic are in with a chance of qualifying ahead of Wednesday’s final fixtures.
If England finish second
This is an even simpler one. If England finish second in their group, they will take on Germany in the round of 16 – no need to wait on other results – with the match taking place in Dortmund on Saturday night.
Back at Euro 2020, England were 2-0 victors as the teams met. Both the goals came in the final 20 minutes, with Raheem Sterling breaking the deadlock and Harry Kane doubling England’s lead late on.
For a while on Sunday night, it looked as though Switzerland rather than Germany would win Group A after Dan Ndoye’s early opener in the game between the two sides. However, a late leveller from Niclas Fullkrug meant the hosts topped the group with seven points.
If England finish third
Now here’s where it gets a little more complicated. One thing’s for certain, though, namely that England would get some extra time off before returning to action.
There will be two options – either Portugal in Frankfurt on July 1 or the winner of Group E the following day. Group E, of course, has Belgium, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine all locked together on three points after two rounds of fixtures.
If England come third, the identity of their next opponents will be determined by which other third-placed teams make it through. At the time of writing, there are three combinations of finishes which would see the team finishing third in England’s group taking on the winner of Group E, and just one which would pit them against Group F winners Portugal.
That combination remains a very possible one, though. It would need the third-placed teams from groups C, D, E and F to progress, and there’s every chance that’s what we get.
If England finish third, then the Group C third-placed team would be through with four points. The Netherlands, who finished third in Group D after losing to Austria, are also through with their four points.
If either of the final games in Group E ends in a draw or a win by a single-goal margin, the third-placed team round be guaranteed to progress. Then it comes down to group F, where it could yet come down to goal difference, though if neither Georgia nor the Czech Republic win on Wednesday then neither will progress and England – if third in their group – would take on the Group E winners. Got all that? Great.
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