Europe has ‘no choice’ but to prepare for war with Russia in the next decade, warns expert

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Fears are growing in Europe that an emboldened Putin would use a peace deal as an opportunity to reinforce his military to attack Ukraine once against before turning his attention to the Baltic States

European leaders have “no choice” but to prepare for war with Russia within “the next decade,” a military analyst has told The Mirror.

Defence and security analyst Michael Clarke gave the damning assessment as US officials landed in Moscow to present a ceasefire deal to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He believes Europe will have to face up to “the biggest strategic shift in US policy toward Russia since 1917” should Donald Trump’s policy be sustained over the next 10 years or by a successor.

“And, if so, it is also accompanied by the biggest moral shift in that historical span too,” he said. “So Europe has no choice now but to prepare for war with Russia in the next decade – in the genuine hope that preparing for it properly offers the best chance of eventually deterring it.

“We can hope for better but hope isn’t a strategy. No choice but to be prepared for what is manifestly out there.”

Ukraine has agreed to US terms for a ceasefire with Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating the “ball is now in their [Russia’s] court”. Mr Rubio is hoping to reach a long-term peace deal between the two countries to fulfil Mr Trump’s vow to end the war.

The Republican leader has heaped pressure on Ukraine by withdrawing military aid and intelligence sharing, which it has now reinstated amid ceasefire negotiations. But he has offered little pressure to hamper Russian aggression beside threatening tariffs and sanctions and it remains unclear whether Moscow would be open to quickly agree to ceasefire and peace terms as it continues to advance into Ukrainian held positions.

“It will be an unstable truce from the start,” Mr Clarke said. “Better than nothing but it hasn’t got much doing for it and Russian will spin out the negotiations for a first 30-day truce to make it difficult for the US to pin down.”

The military analyst also believes Moscow would take any peace with Ukraine as an opportunity to reinforce its army which has estimated to have lost tens of thousands of soldiers after the full-scale war was launched in 2022. He added: “The only issue regarding Ukraine, in the Kremlin’s mind, is the timescale in which they re-absorb Ukraine into Russia – next year or so, or wait until Trump is out of the White House.

“The Kremlin also has an agenda to weaken Europe in all ways possible and thinks it is on a roll now so there will be a sense of military momentum behind what Russia plans next.” The US has called on European leaders to spend more on the military defence of the continent as its attention turns toward containing China in the Pacific.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has already pledged to boost the country’s defence spending and likely next German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on the country to rely less on the US and increase defence spending.

There is a growing attitude among the majority of European leaders that Moscow has become increasingly expansionist with its propaganda outlets expressing a desire to re-establish control over its former territories, including Ukraine and the Baltic States. NATO’s ex-deputy supreme Allied commander in Europe Sir Richard Shirreff previously said he expected the Kremlin to place puppets in Georgia, Moldova and Romania before turning his attention to the Baltic States.