The Environment Agency has issued a sobering report warning of the number of properties already in flood risk areas and the dangers posed by climate change in the decades to come
Around one in five homes and businesses in England are in flood-risk areas, analysis from the Environment Agency has warned.
The number of properties in danger has risen to 6.3million, and up sharply from 5.5million when the last assessment was carried out in 2018. And it warns the impact of climate change could result in the figure soaring to about eight million by the middle of the century – or around one in four homes and businesses.
The update comes after widespread disruption and floods from storms Bert and Darragh.
It covers areas at danger of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface flooding, or a combination of different sources. The analysis draws on more advanced data and modelling and accounts for the impacts of climate change for the first time.
About 4.6million of the properties currently at risk face surface water floods caused by heavy rainfall overwhelming drainage systems and resulting in run-off or flash flooding. The Environment Agency said the figure was a 43% increase on the previous assessment as a result of improvements in data, modelling and use of technology to fill in gaps in some parts of the country.
The assessment also found about 2.4million properties, from houses and flats to caravans, care homes and businesses, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers and the sea in England, slightly lower than the 2.6 million in the last assessment.
But the Agency said there was an 88% increase in the number of properties at the highest levels of risk, with 367,900 homes and businesses now in areas with a greater than one in 30 chance of flooding in any given year, due to a number of factors including improved data and modelling.
The report highlights that more than half (52%) of properties at a high or medium risk from rivers and the sea are in the East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber and South East. Meanwhile, 319,800 properties in areas at high risk from surface water flooding are in London, the report warns.
It also reveals that more than 163,000 properties at a high risk of flooding from rivers and the sea would likely see floodwater of 30cm (1ft) or higher – deep enough to move a car – and more than 184,000 could see surface water flooding of 30cm or more.
Nearly two fifths of railways (37%) and roads (38%) are in areas at some risk of flooding, along with more than a fifth of schools and other educational buildings, and more than a quarter of hospitals and medical facilities, while 59% of the highest quality agricultural land is also at risk.
The assessment is used to inform flood prevention measures ranging from planning advice and the siting and type of flood defences to interventions such as household flood gates and the flood warning system for the public.
Another assessment on coastal erosion, the first to be published since 2017, warns that 3,500 properties are in areas at risk of being lost to the sea up to 2055, a figure which rises to 32,800 if shoreline management plans for threatened areas are not delivered.
And even if such plans are put into place, the numbers of properties at risk of erosion up to the end of the century rises to 19,700 as a result of climate change, which is driving up sea levels and making coastal storms more intense. Hotspots for coastal erosion include the East Riding of Yorkshire, north Norfolk and Cornwall.
Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the Environment Agency, said: “We have spent the last few years transforming our understanding of flood and coastal erosion risk in England, drawing on the best available data from the Environment Agency and local authorities, as well as improved modelling and technological advances.
“Our updated assessment shows there are 6.3 million properties in England in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water. When we account for the latest climate projections, one in four properties could be in areas at risk of flooding by the middle of the century.
“Providing the nation with the best available information on flood and coastal erosion risk is vital to ensuring that policy makers, practitioners and communities are ready to adapt to flooding and coastal change.”
Friends of the Earth campaigner Alison Dilworth said: “This report is yet another stark warning about the growing threat the climate crisis poses to people, homes and communities across the country – with the elderly, disabled and those living in vulnerable areas particularly in danger.”
She warned that Government plans for dealing with increasingly extreme weather were “completely inadequate” and called on Labour to fix the failings of the previous government by strengthening the programme to help the country adapt to climate change.
