New polling commissioned by Hope Not Hate found that Reform UK could win 76 seats if a general election was held now – but the true figure could turn out to be much higher
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could take upwards of 60 seats from Labour if a general election was held now, alarming polling has found.
A survey of over 17,000 voters, commissioned by Hope Not Hate, suggested the hard-right party would win 76 seats – and the number could be far higher. The campaign group said the findings must be viewed as a “wake-up call”.
Projections released by Hope Not Hate found Mr Farage’s party could take 60 seats from Labour, 10 from the Tories and one from the Lib Dems. Since the General Election polling has suggested Reform has overttaken the Tories and is closing in on Labour.
Labour would still be the biggest party with 287 MPs, down from 402, while the Tories would go up to 163. They currently have 121. At the moment Reform UK has five MPs.
Responding to the latest findings, a Labour source said the party needs to be alive to the populist threat. They said: “At the general election, the vast majority of people who voted for Reform were not considering Labour. That won’t be true now, because we’re in government and people are looking for change. The number of people that are feeling unsure about the future is quite big. It’s not just on the fringes of the electoral system.”
Nick Lowles, chief executive of Hope Not Hate, said: “The polling should be a wake-up call for everyone.” He went on: “Reform UK is emerging as a major political force in Britain. The idea that Reform hurts the Conservatives more than Labour is plainly nonsense.”
After analysing the figures, the groups said the UK is entering a “hyper marginal period of politics” – pointing to 266 seats that are very difficult to call. When asked by The Mirror, Hope Not Hate said it would not be releasing a breakdown of individual seats at this state.
Mr Lowles continued: ““While we categorise Reform as a far right populist party, a view supported by 60% of the British public in our polling, its supporters are drawn from across the political spectrum.
“Strong anti-immigration views were dominant amongst those who voted Reform in the 2024 General Election, those who have begun to support the party since then have far more diverse views. This includes a sizeable group who are actually quite positive towards the benefits of immigration and multiculturalism but increasingly feel the main parties have failed and it is time for something new.”
How many seats would each party win if an election was held now?
According to the polling of 17,790 voters, carried out by FocalData between November 30 and January 8, 2024:
Labour 287
Conservatives 163
Reform 76
Lib Dem 63
SNP 22
Greens 4
Plaid Cymru 4
Others 12
