Vladimir Putin is gleefully watching a “gathering storm” in the Middle East which “could easily lead to a global war”, say security experts.
First the world’s attention was centred on Russia and the devastation caused by its invasion of Ukraine and the escalating tensions between countries providing support for either side.
And as we reached a nadir in Western relations with Russia not seen since the most worrying moments of the Cold War, focus has swiftly moved onto the Middle East and the fear of all-out war provoked by Hamas’ attack on Israel a year ago. It now remains to be seen what impact the killing of Hamas’ top leader Yahya Sinwar in a battle with Israel forces in Gaza this week will have on the precarious situation.
For Putin it sees some of the glare taken away from the atrocities carried out in Ukraine and Professor John Strawson, from the University of East London, told The Mirror that the Russian leader will see the Middle East crisis as “weakening” the West.
“Putin welcomes the conflict in the Middle East as he sees it weakening the West,” he said. “The tensions between Israel and the US, EU, the UK and the western-leaning Arab states over the strategy in dealing with Hamas and Hezbollah are signs of what he sees as the decadence and decline of the West. In the inability of the Biden Administration to pressure Israel into a ceasefire deal over Gaza and now over Hezbollah. Putin sees the US as lacking determination and the ability to wield power.”
Israel has been pummelling Gaza in its bid to wipe out Hamas but the many thousands of deaths caused by missile attacks on densely populated areas has caused friction with some of its Western allies. Israel has also launched missile attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon and carried out a ground invasion last month. It is also locked in conflict with Houthi rebels in Yemen, who, like Hezbollah and Hamas, are backed by Iran.
The clashes with Hezbollah started in October last year when the militia group fired missiles into Israel in support of Hamas in Gaza. With Israel targeting Hezbollah it has also brought Iran directly into the conflict with the state firing ballistic missiles at Israel in April and October.
While the US has called for Israeli restraint it continues to support its regional ally and this week it has agreed to provide a defence battery to protect against missiles which will also involve around 100 US troops being based in the country. The Biden administration has said it has assurances from Israel that it won’t attack Iranian nuclear or oil sites as it looks to retaliate after Iran’s missile barrage.
But Prof Anthony Glees, a security and intelligence expert at the University of Buckingham, pointed to the risk of the conflict in the Middle East escalating between two rival blocs.
“What is going on right now is so desperately serious not just because of the unacceptable loss of civilian life and the devastation that does this is, nor even because force has not brought peace to the region since 1948 despite being used on so many occasions, but because this fight is not just about Israel on the one side, and Islamist revolutionaries on the other,” he told The Mirror.
“This is a conflict in which many other nations now believe their vital interests are involved. We can today see that the leading actors are now aligning themselves into two hostile blocs which are rapidly becoming irreconcilable adversaries, ready if necessary to used armed force to sustain their positions.
“One of the most ominous aspects of this ‘gathering storm’ has been the developing axis between Russia and Iran. It is entirely cynical, and entirely about arms. Russia has hitherto been actively involved in fighting Islamist revolutionaries both inside Russia, in Chechnya, in Syria and in Africa.”
Looking at the two sides and the potential of a world war, Prof Glees continued: “Russia is now locked in mortal conflict with Ukraine, supported by NATO, and in danger of losing the war which would be the end of Putin. By conviction and realpolitik, Iran supports the Islamist revolutionary armies of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, the expression of its power and prestige in the Middle East, and the ayatollahs are at risk of being overthrown if they cannot claim victory over Israel.
“On the one side, we have Iran, Russia, Syria, Iraq and Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. On the other, Israel, the USA and the E3, the UK, France and Germany. This is why the fighting between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah (and the Houthis) could so easily become a regional war and then a global war even if no individual actor actually wants this to happen.”
But on a positive note Prof Glees believes that Putin is not looking for a nuclear conflict. “Whilst Russia would want a wider conflict in the hope that it would divert the West from its support of Ukraine, which is quite unrealistic, it too does not want to risk a nuclear conflagration. Putin does not want to die, he wants to enjoy his wealth and his palaces.
“A nuclear winter in Russia would destroy him and his cronies along with everyone else. What everything hangs on at this moment in time is whether Israel will accept a ceasefire or if it will continue to degrade and destroy Hezbollah and Hamas, with impunity.”
Prof Strawson also pointed to how Putin is not just a keen onlooker to the Middle East events as he told how Russia is “deeply involved”, referring also to the possibility that nuclear secrets are being provided to Iran in return for arms to fight the Ukrainians.
“Russia is deeply involved in the Middle East. It played a major role in the critical years of the Syrian civil war in supporting Assad. Its naval base in Tartus in Syria is key to its military position in the Eastern Mediterranean. In Syria it is a rival with Iran for influence over the regime,” he said.
“The Russians and the Iranians have a complex relationship over the Middle East. Some sources say that the Russians are or will supply Iran with key nuclear knowhow. However the Iranians with their new reformist president Pezeshkian are keen to develop better relations with the West and ease the economic sanctions (…). So Iran certainly wants a good relationship with Moscow but at the same time wants to curry favour with the US and the EU so that’s a difficult balancing act. The economic situation is so dire in Iran that re-setting relations with the West maybe the immediate priority.”
He continued: “The tragedy is that the Iranians who back both Hamas and Hezbollah have made it clear they do not want a regional war and yet more people are dragged into the violence. The real problem is that the international community is weak and we do not have the institutions or the political will to address the challenges. If there is a regional war it will more by accident than design.”
Iran is playing a delicate balancing act even if its long term plan is to eventually “destroy a weakened Israel” with the support of its allies, said Prof Strawson. “Iranians do not see themselves as protectors of Hezbollah but rather see Hezbollah as aiding them. That’s why the Iranians have been quite cautious as they do not want to be drawn in directly,” he said.
“They have a long term plan which is encircle Israel by their proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shia militias in Iraq and eventually want to destroy a weakened Israel in a devastating attack. We need to remember that when thinking about how to deal with Iran.
“The West has been slow to understand that the way to oppose Iran in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Palestine is help build strong functioning states with prosperous economies. In other words we need a new political horizon as well as taking making sensible decisions to reinforce our defence capacities. As Israel has shown in Gaza military force without a realistic political aim is a disaster for all concerned.”
