Biggest Ukrainian drone onslaught on Russia in three years of bloody fighting heralds an explosion of violence from both sides – even as peace talks get underway in Saudi Arabia
This morning’s massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russia was symbolic as well as strategic, as Saudi peace talks get underway.
Kyiv is pressing its defiance against the Kremlin whilst displaying enormous firepower to gain leverage in the US-Ukraine talks in Jeddah. It was the largest Ukrainian attack on Russian soil in three years and likely heralds a fresh and major boost in Ukraine exporting violence against Moscow. Kyiv’s war-planners will not want to waste a single weapon against Russia, as it knows it only has a few months of supplies. So this attack was significant.
This attack used up almost 350 explosive drones. But it is a common move by two enemies to hugely escalate attacks on each other in the countdown to a peace deal, as both sides hope to make gains before one is struck. The coming days are likely to see a violent escalation in the region as both sides try to make military gains in case a deal is not reached and they fall back on all-out war.
Russia’s capital Moscow is also likely to come under fire increasingly in a direct and defiant attack and threat towards Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This drone onslaught also sparked travel chaos across Russia, closing airports, leaving cars burning in the street and marks a dangerous time for Putin. Increasingly Russian civilians are witnessing and even suffering directly from Putin’s war and seeing that it is much more than what he calls a “special military operation.” Ukraine is pressing the war on Putin’s supporters and even his inner-circle are likely seeing that it is costing Russia a great deal.
Putin being toppled by insurrection in the short-term is unlikely but Kyiv’s calculation will be that anything to shake his strongman image is a move in the right direction. The escalation marks a significant turning point but it is one aimed not just at Russia but also at showing the US that the war is not over yet, that Kyiv is worth backing. Kyiv is fighting for its life, its dedicated President humiliated in the Oval office Trump- Vance bust-up, US intelligence blocked as well as military aid.
Global military leaders and experts have written Ukraine off before – and they continue to do so, forgetting that Kyiv is extremely resourceful. And Russia’s military gains in Ukraine, although worrying, are glacial and largely not strategically useful in the long-term. At the current rate the Kremlin’s troops are advancing on Ukraine it could take decades of grinding warfare to actually take Kyiv.
