Ed Wise, 29, predicted train delays on Avanti West Coast meaning that every ticket he booked in 2023 was refunded – and he claims to have saved at least £1,000 in less than three years
A savvy passenger managed to claim full refunds on all of his train tickets for a year, saving himself a tidy sum.
Ed Wise, 29, cleverly predicted train delays on Avanti West Coast, meaning that every ticket he booked in 2023 was refunded. He reckons he’s saved at least £1,000 in less than three years since he started planning for delays.
Avanti West Coast offers customers a sliding scale of refunds for delays: 25% off for a 15 minute delay, 50% off for a 30 minute delay and a full refund for delays of an hour or more. Wise, who pens the personal finance newsletter Bunce with colleague Joe Manktelow-Pimm, said he paid “zero” and “rode for free”.
He revealed he began planning for delays after returning from a holiday in Italy, where he booked equivalent journeys for much cheaper prices. Wise said: “I was furious at how woefully inefficient and expensive UK trains were.” Even after buying a railcard, using ticket splitting and booking trips to cheaper stations, he found he was still paying a high amount and contending with delays, reports the Express.
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He used three main factors to predict when trains would be delayed, which were strike action, planned engineering works and extreme weather. Strike action means operators are hit by staff shortages, and Wise found there was normally a knock-on effect of several days before and after the planned action.
Trade unions must give two weeks’ notice before planned industrial action, which Wise used as advance warning of delays.
Trains are occasionally intentionally delayed to allow for necessary engineering and maintenance work, according to National Rail’s website. The third factor in Wise’s “Train Delay Prediction Paradigm” is extreme weather conditions, which are likely to cause train delays.
He stated: “Combine planned engineering works and strike action with winter weather – your train will be delayed, no question about it.”
Wise also uncovered official statistics indicating which stations were more prone to delays. The data revealed that from April 2024 to March 2025, the stations with the highest number of cancellations were Ellesmere Port and Ince and Elton, where over a fifth of all scheduled trains were cancelled.
Both stations are managed by Northern Trains.
Despite some “pretty brutal all-dayers”, Wise confessed he used these delays to carry out his remote work, although this wasn’t always successful. On one occasion, a cancelled train resulted in overcrowding on the service, leaving Wise without a seat for two hours – an experience he described as “unpleasant”.
However, he generally saw these delays as a “perfect” opportunity to get some work done, likening it to “a Starbucks on Wheels”. He found the experience “fun” and felt like he was “winning”. His usual five-hour journey from London to Carlisle had an average delay of just over an hour. Wise concluded: “One hour is the golden median, all your money back for minimal hassle.”
For those mulling over the idea of working on the rails, he offered a tip to really make it purposeful: tackle significant work and only give it a go for trips exceeding three hours. He suggested: “Pack several sandwiches, a thermos, and a book.”
Trains in Britain might be pocket-draining with the highest fares in Europe, yet such woes are compounded as around 40% of services fail to keep to the timetable. After Wise shared his clever rail-riding strategy in his newsletter, it seems he’s not alone in this thinking – several individuals have contacted him to say they’ve adopted the same savvy travel tactic.
