The Met Office has issued an update on the chances of a sudden stratospheric warming event impacting the UK, as weather models continue to show the phenomenon could strike this month
The Met Office has issued a stark warning that Britain could be in for a cold shock this month, as meteorologists predict the possibility of a sudden stratospheric warming event within the next fortnight.
This could spell the end of any lingering hopes for continued mild weather to see out the winter chills. Such an event may lead to a significant weakening of the polar vortex, a term usually reserved for particularly harsh weather conditions. The Met Office has now spoken out about the likelihood of this event affecting the UK.
The polar vortex is essentially a swirling mass of very cold air that sits above the Earth’s poles. When it weakens, it can cause the jet stream to become more erratic, potentially allowing icy Arctic air to sweep southwards.
These changes are notorious for triggering heavy snowfall, extensive blizzards, and a sharp decline in temperatures, fuelling speculation about an imminent bout of severe weather. As ‘Weather Tracker’ from The Guardian notes: “The next stratospheric event looks stronger than the previous one, and will probably weaken the jet stream pattern. This may allow a release of cold air from the polar regions to move southwards into North America or Eurasia, in turn increasing the risk of significant snow for some regions.”
In its latest update, the Met Office added: “The stratosphere polar vortex is now weakening rapidly,” reports the Express.
“Over the last few days, the forecasts have become very confident and we are almost certain there will be a sudden stratospheric warming in mid-March. This is when the mid stratospheric wind is predicted to reverse from westerly to easterly.”
A similar occurrence mid-February led to extended bouts of bitter cold and hefty snowfalls, particularly affecting eastern and northern Scotland. The impacts in the USA and Canada were even more drastic, causing massive disruptions due to the freezing weather.
Weather watchers believe this incoming freeze could pack an even heftier punch, threatening areas across the northern hemisphere. Severe Weather Europe’s website issued an ominous caution: “This upcoming event in the stratosphere looks stronger than the first one and is forecast to be the final collapse of the polar vortex for this season.”
Bloomberg has chimed in as well, alerting that Europe is bracing for a cold snap this month as forecasters prepare for an atypical meteorological phenomenon hailing from the Arctic, which could increase demand for heating just as people expect spring to start.
The latest report, drawing on data from Weather Services International, highlighted the potential for chilling weather reminiscent of the notorious ‘Beast from the East’ that put the UK and Ireland in the deep freeze back in 2018. The report noted, “A similar weather pattern fueled the ‘Beast from the East’ that plunged the UK and Ireland into a prolonged and deadly cold spell in 2018, though March’s conditions aren’t forecast to be near as severe. Still, a cold start to spring could increase gas demand and put pressure on inventories that remain lower than usual for the time of year.”
Weather expert Andrew Pedrini from Atmospheric G2 has been flagging up ongoing chatter about the stratosphere as we wave goodbye to winter. He said: “The stratosphere continues to be a big topic of conversation as the winter ends.”
