Arsenal’s Champions League nightmare that could see Gunners drop to play-offs

Arsenal sit third in the Champions League group phase and are all but into the last 16 – but a catastrophic final outing could still cost them a top eight spot

Arsenal are sitting pretty on 16 points from their seven Champions League games – leaving them third in the new group phase.

Only Liverpool and Barcelona are ahead of them as they eye another season in the knockouts of the European Cup. Their passage is all but secured – but doesn’t allow for a nightmare final matchday where results could wildly go against them.

Mikel Arteta will have enough faith in his side, as will the fans, to laugh off this prospect, but a spot in the last 16 is not yet guaranteed.

You can look as far down as Brest in 13th to find a team on 13 points – just three shy of Arsenal’s total. The Gunners’ big advantage is their goal difference, which currently stands at plus 12. It means the five teams sat on 13 points would need huge goal swings if they were to qualify in the top eight at Arsenal’s expense.

Arsenal’s final fixture is at Spanish minnows Girona. A team who have won one and lost six of their games in Europe this season. For the Gunners to miss out on a place in the top eight it would require, at least, a seven-goal swing.

Aston Villa are in ninth and, after falling away slightly following an impressive start, could be the team to benefit. A situation exists where a 2-0 defeat for Arsenal at Girona and a 5-0 success for Unai Emery’s men at home to Celtic would see them jump above their Premier League rivals.

Monaco, Feyenoord and Lille are on tied with Villa on 13 points, but their inferior goal difference means an even more extreme goal swing would be needed to out the Gunners.

Another element to this scarcely believable scenario would require Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen all to win their final games. It all points to a situation where Arsenal finish in the top eight and secure themselves a spot in the last 16, dodging the new knockout phase play-offs.

A significantly more likely scenario for the Gunners is that a win over Girona, twinned with Barcelona dropping points, sees them move into second place in the table. That would ensure they would be on the other half of the draw to Liverpool and guaranteed to play at home in ALL of their knockout matches on the way to a potential final in Munich.

Last year the Gunners made it to the last eight on their long-awaited return to Europe’s top table. On that occasion it was Bayern Munich who thwarted them, winning 1-0 at the Allianz Arena after the two teams had drawn 2-2 in the English capital.

Despite all the extreme permutations, which mean Arsenal can technically not speak of a guaranteed top eight spot, Arteta is poised for another attempt at making inroads in Europe.

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